Hey, you might want to move this to the National Merit forum under Financial Aid. Also, there is a lot of good stuff there for you to read to get an idea of your chances. Every year someone starts a thread "Official National Merit Semifinalist Qualifying Thread for the Class of ____" in August. These run for dozens of pages, but by about first week of September they've figured out the scores for all the states. Last year PA was 214, the year before 215, not sure before that, you can check. Then on college board, you can look through their data:College-Bound Juniors & Sophomores | Research and Development
to get an idea of how this year's scores compare to previous years within your state, as well as changes in numbers of test-takers. Unfortunately college board (purposefully, no doubt) publishes the data in a split up way that makes it very difficult to be certain of what will happen with state score for coming year, though a couple of talented data crunchers on CC do pretty well with educated guesses.