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It's mostly the date. Maybe ED II has a few more applicants because it's later in the season, but I don't think that it makes such a huge difference in terms of admittance. The admission rate is slightly higher for ED applicants, but usually that's because it's a self selecting pool. Only people who are really good matches for Smith and really love it are going to take the chance to lock themselves into an ED agreement.
I think you have a pretty good shot, not a total lock, probably not a candidate for merit aid (you are very meritorious, but merit aid's tough to come by at Smith). You're an IB candidate so even though your GPA is a little low, you must take the most rigorous courses offered at your tough high school, so that will matter more than what your number is.
SATs aren't too bad, Math is low, but if you can bring that up and/or balance it out with good grades in your actual math classes it shouldn't hurt you too much. And if you want to major in English, you should be okay.
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