yeah, it's really competitive...as or more so than harvard, stanford, etc. i was accepted to the huntsman program, which is the other really competitive joint degree program at penn, and all the regular decision admits i talked to were choosing between huntsman and princeton, harvard, yale, etc. what i will say is that it seems to be a huge advantage to apply there early because they know the rd yield rate is going to be 50% or less due to the competitiveness of the program and the choices kids will inevitably have. they therefore take more than half the kids in the program early decision. as for if you have a shot at making it, i don't think anyone can tell you anything other than just give it a try. i got into the two schools that i applied to that were the hardest to get into (harvard and huntsman - both around 5% acceptance rate rd) and i got deferred and rejected by yale, so who knows with these things. feel free to ask any more questions or pm me if you want to talk further.