I've known a number of early-applying kids in the past who've been deferred to the regular admissions cycle. (It also happens very frequently to students applying to UO's honors college, even if they meet the early filing deadlines.)
This year's incoming class was intentionally smaller than the previous year's. UO had a very high yield in 2008, so they cut the size of the 2009-incoming class by 500 students in order to balance that out. This current freshman class has the highest cumulative average GPA of any in the school's history at 3.54. So it's just getting a little harder to get in because of housing and infrastructural limitations and the rising GPAs.
Which is not to say that being deferred is necessarily bad news, just that they probably need to see how many automatic admits they get applying by the January deadline. The economic downturn has had the effect of swelling college attendence all over. I guess if there are no jobs out there people think they may as well go to college.
So the state schools are all seeing a jump in applications.
Being out-of-state will likely be to your son's benefit, and he does meet the minimum requirements. I hope it all works out for him!
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