What I don't understand is why you are so afraid of applying? What do you have to lose? (besides the ~$100 application fee) If they don't take you, their loss but if they do, it's entirely your gain!
I'm Asian, from CANADA (not quite international but there's still a quota on how many Canadians Penn accepts, around 1.5% of the acceptances = 30-40 acceptances from ED and RD combined), and as you said, I didn't cure cancer, nor did I score 2400 nor did I start up a non-profit that saved children from world hunger etc etc...
That means M&T ED announces their results before Wharton does, I would assume?
No, all ED results are announced at the same time. It just means that if you are not accepted ED for M&T, you will be considered for Wharton ED (if you so request on your Penn Supplement). That all happens before ED results are announced.
I'm Asian, from CANADA (not quite international but there's still a quota on how many Canadians Penn accepts, around 1.5% of the acceptances = 30-40 acceptances from ED and RD combined)
Unless you have some reliable inside information (e.g., you heard it directly from Eric Furda, himself), I don't believe that Penn has a quota for Canadians. For example, there are 46 Canadians in the Class of 2015, and that includes ED and RD acceptances:
It was a rough estimate from the total acceptances of ~4000 x about 11% international student body x 40% of internationals who were Canadian/Mexican x a rough split between Canada and Mexico.
I made assumptions and worked with the numbers I had. Regardless, it's not a lot of acceptances. Not when you consider all the people applying from private schools, magnet high schools, and even public schools (such as myself). Even higher numbers in the big cities like Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary (where unsurprisingly, there's a substantial Asian/first generation immigrant population). So couple the volume of Canadian applicants with at most 100-150 acceptances for the entire country, it's still a very small acceptance rate.
so tl;dr: if you never shoot, you will miss 100% of the shots (or something along those lines) Best of luck!
edit: just looked at 45Percenter's link, seems like the student body is made up of more Canadians I assumed. Which is all the better for us I guess.
^ Bottom line is that Penn admissions are need-blind for citizens and permanent residents of Canada, the US, and Mexico, as opposed to the rest of the world. In other words, Penn views all North American applicants the same, with no quotas.
I applied ED for Columbia this year thinking I'd have a better chance. Nope, flat rejection. I apply to the rest of my RD schools thinking there's no chance that I'd get in with these schools's <10% admit rates but then I was accepted. So anything can happen
I still don't get why people make a big deal about ED. Is there any proof that these schools take 'worse' applicants ED that they wouldn't take RD? I always just assumed the higher ED percentages were just because only really good applicants applied early. How do we know the higher percentage is not just a result of self-selecting?
it's all about quota. colleges explain that the reason why ED acceptance rates are high is that better qualified applicants do ED or EA. However, it is true that in the end, minute details such as your race, region, nationality, and etc. matter. Being an International Asian student, ED/EA definitely helps. It would have been a different story if I were a caucasian American citizen. Had I been a native American/African-American/Latino, it would also have been a completely different story.
^ what I heard from one of the "college consultants."