Oriondragon

Alright, I haven't been accepted to Yale, nor have I applied. What I want to ask is judging by the info i'm about to lay out, do I have much of a chance.

My GPA is like 4.4 and I'm currently taking a bunch of ap and honors courses. i'm a junior in highschool. I'm involved in spring track, mock trial, marching band, and a bunch of other stuff I can't remember right now. I have an acceptable amount of community service hours. My sister graduated 07 so, you know, I have alumni relation. I was born in Ethiopia, so that might help me out. What worries me is that I had a bad freshman year. Haha, i had like a 3.6 with like one honors class.
sorry, its such vague information, but judging by this brief outlook, do I have much of a chance of getting in, I want to know from people who have gone through all this highschool crap and know what Yale really wants in an applicant. I'm always hearing about Yale dropping acceptance rates and I feel worse and worse about getting a big fat rejection from the university I always dreamed of attending. So, anyway thoughts? Should I just apply and give it my best and see how it goes, or should I just forget it now?
Thanks for anyone who answers.