Let me apologize in advance for the lack of sources––I'm having zero luck with Google today
I think Gibby's original math had a small (huge?) miscalculation. Only about 20 QuestBridge applicants will be accepted, yes
, but many, many, many more will apply. So I guess the actual problem comes down to: does QuestBridge get counted in this 4514 applications for Early Action, or does it get counted in it's own category (or even RD)?
Because QB selected ~47% of applicants as finalists this year (out of about 8,000 applicants), there is a substantial amount of College Match applicants to big-name schools. Even if there were only a small percentage of those finalists applying through QB to Yale (say 10-15%), that would be about 376-564 more applications for review.
As Yale is one of the 4 (out of ~33) colleges in the National College Match which is not a binding college, it is a hugely attractive school to apply to through QB (take this with a grain of salt, because it's a vague memory, but I remember reading that as many as 60% of QB Finalists will rank Yale or one of the other three non-binding colleges).
If you take this factor into consideration, (figuring a middle-of-the-road 45% of finalists will apply to Yale), you get about 1692 QB applicants to Yale. This means the total amount of (non-QB) Early Applications to Yale is 2,822.
That is, unless QB is not counted at all in the SCEA admissions process.
I feel like this kind of throws a wrench into the math being done here... sorry haha. My math may be far from correct, but it should still be taken into consideration, as it was completely omitted before. If anyone has any for-realz data or sources about this, feel free to correct me.