I have been meaning to update but generally everyone here is so informative I haven't had anything new to add, but wanted to add this because I hadn't seen it before. We heard this when K2 permitted me to be on a phone call with a coach last night.
The story went, a major recruit who was urged to go ED ended up getting a mid-term D senior year. The coaches advised him to go ED2 in order to get the D up to a B and not let the adcom see it. The recruit still went ED1, the adcom saw his transcript at Nov. 1 and he was rejected.
Worst part of the story? The major recruit didn't end up playing his sport at all in college.
I wasn't in the same room with K2 when we were listening to this, but I picture him with crickets around him while he contemplated this possibility.