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College Admissions Statistics Class of 2022

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Replies to: College Admissions Statistics Class of 2022

  • ClassOf2018PClassOf2018P Registered User Posts: 24 Junior Member
    edited March 2018
    Remember "Turning the Tide" initiative a few years ago where top colleges gathered to "reshape the college admissions process and promote greater ethical engagement among aspiring students, reduce excessive achievement pressure..."?

    What this year's stats will likely show is that we (the collective "we" including colleges, parents, high schools, etc.) will have made no progress in tide-turning.

    Kids and families continue to get more stressed, entire third-party industries proliferate to "game" the system for those who can pay, high schools changing how they grade/what they offer to fit college admissions priorities, colleges marketing to students who could never get into their schools and then touting record-breaking stats.... Where does the madness end?

  • bronze2bronze2 Registered User Posts: 243 Junior Member
    edited March 2018
    Some of the releases in statistics really shows how desirable and competitive the "more selective" colleges have become, now that the "elite" colleges are below 5%, below 10% in acceptance rates. E.g., from class of 2020 to class of 2022:

    Pomona 9.4% to 7.0% (25% increase in selectivity) - 765 offers down to 713 in 2022, for class size of ~412 (based on class of 2021);
    USC 16.6% to 12.9% - 9022 to 8258 offers (~3358 enroll);
    Northwestern 10.7% to 8.0% - 3743 to 3250 offers (~1903 enroll);
    Swarthmore 12.8% to 9.1% - 988 to 980 (~392 enroll);
    Williams 17.6% to 12.2% - 1230 to 1163 (~548 enroll);
    Colby 18.7% to 13.0% - 1840 to 1602 (~510 enroll);
    Tulane 25.5% to 17% - 8162 to 6600 (~1905 enroll);
    Wellesley 28.6% to 19.0% -1388 to 1267 (~605 enroll);
    BU 29.4% to 22% - 16907 to 14184 (~3498 enroll).

    Note number of offers for 2020 are from common data set, or for class of 2022, may be implied from announcements of acceptance rates which have been subject to rounding.

    The downward trend is no surprise since applicants keep increasing, but the rate has been rapid. What has been a surprise is the sharp decline in the number of offers or admits - which is the impact now being felt of ED2 and more use of ED generally, and of an overall increase in selectivity. It has become so much more of a seller's market. Yields will be going up this year, and there may not be much coming off waitlists.

    On the other hand, this trend also reflects and confirms the underlying desirability of many of the colleges below the "elites." The US has so many great schools that students can cast their search much broader - this is what we have consistently told our kids, heard from good college counselors and from many others. There was a big arbitrage with Stanford and Harvard at 5%, yet Wellesley and BU and Tulane at >25% -- but less of an arbitrage now. Unfortunately, the path has become tougher for this year's class for that point to be made.
  • collegemomjamcollegemomjam Registered User Posts: 1,882 Senior Member
    I think you guys are right in that it is crazier than ever trying to get into a top school (top 50 for argument's sake, or a
    certain top program within a school) but I think the bubble has burst a little and it's getting easier at the more midrange schools. There are less applicants. I also think acceptance rates at some schools are a bit skewed because of how they keep changing their ED/EA options.

    I also think the grade inflation issue is a bit of a problem. Definitely hurts the more rigorous schools that not only make it more difficult to take AP level classes, but if you are even allowed to take them the grading is harsh. This is especially problematic if the school doesn't rank (which so many don't!).

    I am surprised how little AP scores are taken into consideration in the application process. You can send your scores and they might be used in the application process but so many schools don't require them.
  • PurpleTitanPurpleTitan Registered User Posts: 12,664 Senior Member
    @collegemomjam, schools don't require AP scores because many HS's in the US don't even offer AP classes, so it would be unfair to require them.

    But don't assume that they don't matter. Though it's all opaque. They certainly seem to matter more at some schools than others.
  • collegemomjamcollegemomjam Registered User Posts: 1,882 Senior Member
    @PurpleTitan I'm not saying they don't matter but I am a little surprised they don't matter more. But you raise a good point about the "fairness" issue.

    But I called many top schools last year on behalf of a client who was applying with strong AP Scores and it seemed like some admissions offices were kind of indifferent towards them. Not even sure if she should send them. Or if they would be used.

    I get the fairness issue and the process has to adjust to that. I just feel like that's the best way to judge the true rigor of a program. There are such disparities in some schools AP offerings. And it usually shows in the scores.
  • quadacesquadaces Registered User Posts: 100 Junior Member
    We spoke to a consultant for my D and she advised against sending APs. My D has all 4s and 5s and applied to Ivys and highly selective schools. She said it’s not necessary. I’m sure there is a another school of thought.
  • collegemomjamcollegemomjam Registered User Posts: 1,882 Senior Member
    I think with Ivies if you don't send all 5's it could hurt you.

    Another thing to keep in mind if you are sending scores...

    Sometimes you might waive yourself out of a class you don't want to be waived out of. And they may make you take a harder level class to fulfill a requirement. This happened to my daughter.

    So it definitely has to be thought out before you send.
  • collegemomjamcollegemomjam Registered User Posts: 1,882 Senior Member
    With that said, you can put "AP Scholar with Distinction" on your application and "National AP Scholar" as well if you can get those before your applications are due.
  • evergreen5evergreen5 Registered User Posts: 1,409 Senior Member
    On the APs, I am under the impression that they need to be self-reported on the app rather than officially sent from College Board, as the official report might go to registration rather than admissions.

    Virtually every selective college saw a big increase in apps this year and that is the source of decreasing acceptance rates. How much of that is more total applicants applying to selective schools vs more applications per applicant? Thoughts?
  • eastcoast101eastcoast101 Registered User Posts: 459 Member
    I was concerned because while our HS offers a ton of APs, they restrict who can take them. No APs as a freshman period. The only APs as a soph are AP Comp Sci if you took the prereq as a freshman, Art History, and APUSH1. I was stunned when I saw here kids taking Calc as a sophomore--I've heard of 1 kid EVER who did that in our school and he was truly gifted, and not just because his parents thought he was. Things open up junior year but they still have strict prerequisites--for example, you can't go straight into an AP science class. You take an honors level high school class first and then, if you get an A or A- you take the AP class as a junior or senior (eg, Honors Bio is a prereq for AP Bio). Nobody graduates with AP Chem, Bio, and Physics--you don't have time. Math courses are similarly very tracked, beginning in 6th grade, and you can't jump from one track to another, so if you are mis-tracked in elementary school (as I believe my S was) you're out of luck. Add into that state requirements (here in NJ gym is required all 4 years, we have a 1-year "career" requirement--could be anything from accounting to child care to engineering--a 1-year arts requirement, and a 1-semester financial literacy requirement, all of which take up precious class time in the schedules). So when I came here and saw kids are graduating with 11-12 APs, which would be extremely difficult at our HS, I was concerned. But I guess schools realize that, because some of our graduates still get into elite schools even without 11-12 (or more) APs.
  • Sue22Sue22 Registered User Posts: 6,135 Senior Member
    If it were simply a matter of the same pool of kids applying to an ever-increasing number of schools you would expect the number of applications to go up but the acceptance rates to remain the same because each school would yield a lower percentage of applicants.

    Many select colleges are doing a great deal of outreach to first generation students and students from underserved schools, in other words, bright kids who in a previous generation would simply have applied to their local community college or state school under the misapprehension that elite schools don't take kids like them or are unaffordable. Add an increase in the number of international students and the pool is just plain larger and more qualified.
  • gallentjillgallentjill Registered User Posts: 2,469 Senior Member
    I am stunned that so many kids are applying to colleges with perfect 4.0 averages. I must be naive, but I honestly can't image how that happens? These kids never have an off day? Never write an essay the teacher doesn' like? I know there are some true geniuses out there, but there seem to be so many more now. Thousands upon thousands of kids who never made a misstep in four years of high school. On top of that, they all seem to have mind boggling extra curriculars. They are all the presidents of the schools, varsity captains, nationally ranked musicians and have hundreds of volunteering hours. I could never have achieved what these kids do and I went to a top Ivy. How on earth are they managing?
  • citivascitivas Registered User Posts: 655 Member
    Our public HS also restricts when you can take AP's too -- none as a Freshman, limited amount and exceptions as a Sophomore. Though the floodgate opens Junior and Senior year and most competitive kids take 5 or more each year then...

    In terms of grade inflation at some HS's, I'm not sure how much it matters. The admissions departments have detailed profiles and comparative stats on each high school. They know the average GPA, the GPA of the top tier, etc. Heck, they know the average grade of specific classes. So if the school is an easy grader but there's one class that isn't, they know it. They also likely have data on how well previous students from any given school did once they arrived at their college. So whether the grading is easy or hard, you are mostly competing against your own current and previous peers' performances. At least this is true of competitive schools that send a decent number of applicants to these selective colleges. The data may be less robust for some smaller, rural schools that don't see high-po applicants as often.

    That's why it's so meaningless when people list their GPA's here, particularly weighted GPA's. It's so school-specific. I particularly laugh when I read the GPA's over 5 -- which should be statistically impossible (but of course those schools are doing things like giving extra points for A+, treating even non AP courses as worth more than 4, etc.). At our school a perfect 4.0 unweighted with a student taking the maximum # of AP's they would be allowed would max out somewhere just north of 4.5. At another school a 4.7 weighted still isn't a 4.0 unweighted. Etc. But the colleges no that.
  • citivascitivas Registered User Posts: 655 Member
    @Sue22 Beyond the outreach to under-privileged and represented students, these schools are also marketing like crazy to every possible student even those who aren't under-privileged but are also long shots to be accepted. And they are consciously doing these to make it easier and easier to apply. They are gaming their stats by maximizing their applicant pool. No need for any supplemental info. Some make the application free, even to students of means. Etc.
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