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How useful is Naviance to predict/estimate college admissions?

GufususGufusus Registered User Posts: 15 Junior Member
I am looking at Naviance and my daughter is always at the top of the scattergram on GPA, SAT and ACT compared to all the girls at her school.
The questions is how reliable is this as a tool to predict/estimate college admissions?

Replies to: How useful is Naviance to predict/estimate college admissions?

  • momofsenior1momofsenior1 Registered User Posts: 2,992 Senior Member
    It was mostly accurate for my daughter with the exception of U. of Michigan, where even a friend with perfect scores and grades was wait listed. Case Western was also not accurate for some of her friends.

    What we heard after the fact was that it can depend on intended major. For example, engineering or CS can be more competitive at some schools.
  • GnocchiBGnocchiB Registered User Posts: 2,058 Senior Member
    edited June 12
    Depends in part how old the data is. My kids' school includes only the most recent 3 years of data. Many schools have gotten much more competitive than they were 10 or even 5 years ago.
  • northwestynorthwesty Registered User Posts: 3,274 Senior Member

    I found that Naviance really didn't predict things all that well for the high end schools. Limited data, old data and important missing data (like controlling for athlete, legacy, URM, ED, RD, in state, out of state).

    For top tier selective schools, I found it most helpful to look at the school specific admit results threads here on CC for the previous application cycle. Seeing the actual posted results for 10-20 kids at a particular school gives you a good feel for how it works beyond the stats. That's where you can see how an unhooked RD 35 ACT kid will often get rejected while a hooked ED 31 ACT kid often gets accepted.

    Those postings often disclose how kids are doing at other schools too. That can help a lot too, since you can see how the same kid does at somewhat similar schools.
  • jzducoljzducol Registered User Posts: 527 Member
    edited June 12
    For holistic schools under 10% acceptance rate (and there are nearly twenty of them) Naviance is useless in predicting chances.
  • brooklynlydiabrooklynlydia Registered User Posts: 127 Junior Member
    Useless. Doesn't help to know the high school's results since liberal arts and engineering were thrown into the same bin.
  • h8annahh8annah Registered User Posts: 59 Junior Member
    At my school, it isn't that accurate. I go to a school in CT, and for UConn, for example, all of the branches are included in the stats, which are easier to get into, so the stats are lower than they should be. A lot of the data is also kind of old. Not to mention that SAT/GPA is only a portion of college admissions, and other things are taken into account that Naviance does not include like ECs, Awards, SAT IIs, etc.
  • bopperbopper Forum Champion CWRU Posts: 11,796 Forum Champion
    For my DD going to one of our state schools, it helped her to know how she would do when applying ED.
  • patertriumpatertrium Registered User Posts: 609 Member
    edited June 13
    S2 was as far up in the upper right quadrant as you can get and had little green checks all around his blue circle for UCB and UCLA. But it was not to be. Definitely take it with a grain of salt.

    S3 is right on the red/blue border in Naviance for UCD, UCI, UCSD. I'm hoping the Naviance uncertainly principle works in our favor on this one! Parchment gives him much better odds. Maybe it's because so many high achievers come from his school the UC's say "we've seen enough - let's get some kids from Madera"..
  • GufususGufusus Registered User Posts: 15 Junior Member
    OP here.
    The uncertainty of not having any good tool is killing us.
    Is very unfortunate because my dougther wants to apply to only 3 top schools and that's it.
  • sybbie719sybbie719 Super Moderator Posts: 22,167 Super Moderator
    As long as she is guaranteed to be admitted and it is an affordable option for your family, then it is all good. If not, then she needs to cast a wide net as guaranteed scholarships have become competitive and students grow a lot during senior year; while there may only be 3 schools that she is interested now (hopefully not all 3 are HYP), you don't want her to have buyers remorse.

    If you look at the common data set, where does her stats fall among students who were admitted and matriculated to the school(s)?
  • thumper1thumper1 Registered User Posts: 71,701 Senior Member
    edited June 13
    Is very unfortunate because my dougther wants to apply to only 3 top schools and that's it.

    What top three schools? What are her SAT or ACT scores, and her GPA? What other things are on her application that make her feel she is guaranteed admission to these schools?

    Can you afford to pay? Have you runnnet price calculators at these top three schools to see if they are within your family price point?

    Do you have twins? You had a son who supposedly took the PSAT last fall. If he was a junior, that would make him a senior now also.
  • tk21769tk21769 Registered User Posts: 10,466 Senior Member
    Depends in part how old the data is.
    It also depends on the quantity of data, and on the importance of grades and scores alone in predicting admission to the schools that interest you. At many "top" schools, good stats are necessary but not sufficient.

    No tool can completely account for the subjective factors that influence holistic admissions.
    Therefore, some colleges should be considered reaches for nearly everyone.
  • mom2andmom2and Registered User Posts: 2,501 Senior Member
    Naviance worked well for us, with admits for those schools where each was within the "green" and mixed results where each was in the "maybe" zone. At the very tippy top schools Naviance also shows how difficult it is to get admitted, where there are only a few greens, a number of blue ("wait lists") and many red denials. It is a great tool for matches and safeties, but reaches, and especially high reaches, are schools where a kid has a chance, but where even kids with almost perfect stats are not necessarily admits. Our HS is a large, well-regarded, competitive suburban school. Not sure how well this would work for much smaller or less challenging HSs.

    Not to be harsh, but your daughter's strategy has a lot of risk. As a parent, I would be sure she understands that even if she is at the top of her class, there are thousands of other kids that are at the top of their HS classes. Many of the top schools have over 90% DENIAL rates. I am sure you know some of this, but really need to get the message to her.
    She needs to understand that she could be shut out of all three. I would recommend a parent-required application to a safety or two.
  • gallentjillgallentjill Registered User Posts: 1,835 Senior Member
    I found our Naviance was very accurate as long as you controlled for major. If you know that you are applying to a selective major in an otherwise less selective school, the tool is useless. For the top schools with 15% or lower admit rates, you really don't need Naviance at all. You know up front that the chances are minuscule regardless of stats.

    The type of school you attend also makes a difference. Our high school is very homogeneous so its a pretty good assumption that few of the dots represent "hooks." There may be a couple of recruited athletes or legacies but very very few URM or first gen. In a more diverse school, the graphs may not be as applicable.
  • texaggietexaggie Registered User Posts: 114 Junior Member
    edited June 13
    General understanding is greater data points will have better accuracy.

    Useful tool to brag about student's GPA/SAT scores being equal to Ivie acceptances threshold. We find some local universities are very accurate because acceptance rate is much higher. Lower the acceptance rate not that reliable.

    My recommendation is choose major first, not the school.

    Good Luck,
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