National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

sat225 · January 2016

Yeah the concordance tables aren't really making much sense... I'm in the top 98% (which usually qualifies for nmsc in my state) but the concordance tables say that my score is equivalent to a 197 last year, which is a lot lower than I think it should be.

sat225 · January 2016

Also, I got a 680 on both sections this year, but last year I got r-65, m-62, & w-76. If you add zeros to those, add them up, and divide by 3, the average section score would be 676 2/3, so slightly lower than this year (and if you do it by averaging the reading & writing first, it's 662.5) so it doesn't make much sense that my score this year would equate to a lower score than that...

drewharrahill · January 2016

I got a 208 this year in Nebraska. The cutoff last year was a 209. Because the total score went down by 12 point (5%), I assume the cutoff score will also go down by 5% to a 199. So this would mean I would qualify right? Obviously this isn't how the cutoff is chosen but I think it's a pretty good estimation. What do you think? Is my logic here solid or am I missing something?

LAD2266 · January 2016

I hate to be that guy, but just to confirm, a 220 SI score is on the bubble for California correct?

websensation · January 2016

@LAD2266 IMO (note it's just my gut feeling), 220 for CA has 50% chance of being the cutoff SI score. Up in the air, as they say.

Leafyseadragon · January 2016

@LAD2266 that's my general feeling after stalking these boards all afternoon. My kid got 219 so I'm right with you.

DWilliam · January 2016

217 SI Score from KY here, 1460 raw. Concordance table shows equivalent of 219-221 on the previous exam, with the cutoff for KY at the time being 210. Is my logic correct in suspecting that a 217 would be passable for NMSF?

tigerrocks13 · January 2016

@DWilliam Yep that logic is sound.

gusmahler · January 2016

@mom3eps 216 in AZ will almost certainly be semi-finalist.

shiftydraw · January 2016

Is this 220 si score on the 228 scale or 240?

websensation · January 2016

@DWilliam You made it for sure since you are in KY.

PremiumSalt · January 2016

So what is the cutoff for receiving an asterisk beside your SI score?

LAD2266 · January 2016

@shiftydraw It was on the new scale out of 228, but when I converted it using the concordance tables it was still 220/240 which is weird.

racmpc · January 2016

I've been searching online for info but I'm more confused than when I started! (New at this!) Some are saying lower scoring states will have a higher cutoff than last year but others are saying cutoff will be a few points lower than the 2014 cut off.

We're in NC, 220 SI, 1450 TS-99%tile (750 r&w-99th%tile, 700 math-98th%tile, 37 reading, 38 writing&language, 35 math.) Any help/guidance would be be greatly appreciated!

gusmahler · January 2016

220 should be safe in all states except NJ/DC.

NoVADad99 · January 2016

Crossing my finger as my son got 221 (VA).

racmpc · January 2016

Great! Thanks!

Shiryc · January 2016

My son got 224, should be OK in NJ?

2blessed2b · January 2016

should I be worried about a 216/1430 in Florida?

tayemack · January 2016

How about Texas with a 197 for National Hispanic Scholar?

National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

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