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Chance me for HYP

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Replies to: Chance me for HYP

  • sgopal2sgopal2 3915 replies52 threads Senior Member
    H is notoriously picky for the EA round. They will generally accept a large portion of the hooked kids during EA. Lots and lots of other kids who would be first pick at other schools get deferred. And if you get deferred into the RD round, its almost hopeless.

    The schools all say that there are no quotas for individual high schools, but in reality there are regional 'targets' for number of kids to take. The officer for your region will have no incentive to take you early, if there are others from your HS with higher priority (hooked). With your stats and scores, I doubt you will be rejected. Most likely deferred to RD. This leaves you to fend with the others in the RD round.

    If you haven't done so already, suggest you read the documents in the recent Harvard lawsuit. These documents provide more insight into how the admissions committee works:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2018/10/21/dockets-ratings-tips-how-harvard-admissions-selects-student/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.43c0685fb116

    https://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/documents/local/evidence-in-harvard-admissions-trial/3248/

    https://samv91khoyt2i553a2t1s05i-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Doc-415-1-Arcidiacono-Expert-Report.pdf

    The last (Arcidiacono report) is the most interesting IMHO.

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  • HamurtleHamurtle 2740 replies36 threads Senior Member
    OP is obviously not from New Jersey, as that is not a New England state. If the Latin is a clue, it might might be one of the schools in the Boston area that has the language as an emphasis.

    If so, then there might be a better chance at an Ivy acceptance since those particular schools are near feeders. Although 5 out of 40-50 applicants being accepted seems low for the likes of Boston Latin and Rindge and Latin.

    At this point, it’s a matter of crafting essays to bring out the best.
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  • socaldad2002socaldad2002 2477 replies34 threads Senior Member
    I wouldn’t assume that ED or SCEA is a boost for this unhooked, Asian applicant for Top 10 colleges, in fact it may hurt your chances if they outright reject you and you don’t get deferred to RD. The ED admission percentages “lie” for the average excellent student who is not an athlete, development case, URM, legacy, special talent, or other connection to the college.

    I’m not saying don’t apply early to HYP, but I would seriously consider using my ED card at the many excellent colleges that are not the Ivy League for a more realistic chance at early acceptance. Just my 2 cents.
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  • theloniusmonktheloniusmonk 3036 replies5 threads Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    "Just as elite colleges need to fill their cheer leading squad, sports teams, and student governments, they also desire highly to fill their respected student symphony orchestras, and student musical theaters with quality talent yearly."

    Filling a sports team is far more important to school, even HYP, than student government or orchestra. That is why coaches have inordinate amount of power in this, and why the admission scandal focused on bribing coaches, not professors of history or band directors.

    "I wouldn’t assume that ED or SCEA is a boost for this unhooked, Asian applicant for Top 10 colleges, in fact it may hurt your chances if they outright reject you and you don’t get deferred to RD."

    I'm not sure on this, from the analysis by data10, the correlation of .82 for scea is too strong to ignore, it really is. Not to get too geeky but if you square the correlation, you get .67 variance, having something that explains 67% of something cannot be ignored. Even if you assume all the assumptions on scea, it would still argue to use the scea bullet for hyps, if one of those were you first choice.

    "but I would seriously consider using my ED card at the many excellent colleges that are not the Ivy League for a more realistic chance at early acceptance."

    At this point any ED college is 4th on her list so a bad idea to ED anywhere if it's not even top-3, her goal is HYP, and yes that may not happen, but her goal is not get in early somewhere, if it were, she would have probably mentioned the other 5 ivy colleges with ED or places outside her region - Chicago, NU, Duke et al.

    OP, I know you're in a tough, maybe even brutal demographic, but apply SCEA to HYP, and if finances work, apply EA to a OOS flagship with good IR, poly sci programs - Michigan, Virginia would be my choice if you're ok leaving the area.
    edited June 2019
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  • peach0v0peach0v0 90 replies1 threads Junior Member
    I think the question boils down to whether you want to take the risk or play safe. I don't think applying early to HYP will give you any significant boost: yes, overall your stats are impressive, but not to the point of getting "automatically accepted," as other posters have mentioned.

    Let's imagine a hypothetical scenario: say you apply early to HYP, and you happen to get accepted, yay! However, I think in your case the most likely outcome is getting deferred. First off, being deferred just means that you are not an automatic reject: the deferred acceptance rate is still very, very low. Your application would then be thrown into the RD pool, where you have even slimmer chances against countless other world-class applicants. Worse off, by restricting yourself to just one of HYP in the early round, you cannot apply to any other school early. That is a major detriment to your chances at any school in the top 5-15, since they usually fill almost half of their class in the early round. If you then get into any of these schools in the RD round, congrats again. But, worst-case scenario, by only applying RD to these schools, you still run a major risk of not getting into any of them, which is exactly what happens to countless students like you every year. You might end up in a school below top 30, which is still not bad, but it's a big difference compared to your current goal of HYP.

    The safe route: apply early (preferably ED and a lot of EAs) to top 10-20 schools. This maximizes your chances of getting into a school with a caliber close enough to HYP. If you happen to get deferred in the ED round, you can still apply to HYP in the RD round. Getting deferred from ED to RD does give you an edge compared to other applicants in RD. These schools emphasize a high yield rate, and by making a commitment to the school in the ED round, AOs will pick you over someone else who didn't make the same commitment when RD rolls by. I think with your stats you have a very high chance of getting into these schools, if you apply early. This way, you minimize your chances of falling to a school below top 30.

    Remember, you can always transfer to HYP after two years or go there for graduate school instead. In fact, HYP are more likely to accept students from top 20 schools than below top 30.

    I say all of this because I was in your shoes last year when I faced the difficult choice of whether I should SCEA to Harvard or not. And as a fellow Asian, my stats were not better than yours. I ultimately decided to ED to a top 10 school. I was deferred, which allowed me to apply to Harvard during the RD round. Of course I didn't get in. But surprisingly, I got in to my ED school during the RD round. Honestly, I feel like if I didn't apply to that school ED I would never have gotten in. My next best options were in the top 20s to 30s. I wish you the best of luck as you begin your college search this year. If you have any specific questions you can PM me.
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  • HamurtleHamurtle 2740 replies36 threads Senior Member
    edited June 2019
    I would seriously include Chicago at this point. The OP seems to write pretty well and that might be a better intellectual fit.

    Add Tufts and George Washington as target schools. Do not place your eggs into the HYP basket.

    LACs should also be considered, as apart from the Amhersts and Williams of the world, most Asians don’t think of them as viable options.
    edited June 2019
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  • BKSquaredBKSquared 1656 replies8 threads Senior Member
    ^^ It might have worked out for you, but I don't agree as a tactical matter for the general applicant. With OP's stat's, she is a viable candidate for HYP (not saying she will get in or have a good chance of getting in), but she is a competitive non-hooked applicant. Yes, the chances are she will be deferred. Yes, the admit rate for deferrals is pretty low, especially for H since they defer just about everyone, including borderline lotto cases. But, many deferrals for HYP are going to be "courtesy" deferrals for legacies who don't have a shot RD. Bottom line, I don't think you are hurt by applying early vs RD except in the rare situation where something "big" happens for you between the EA application deadline and the RD deadline where the impact may be lost if you already got deferred (or rejected) vs applying RD where you can highlight the accomplishment in an essay(s) and in LoR's. Remember, in the early round the athletic recruits are going to be taking about 200 spots at HYP. Then add the development cases and a high percentage of legacies. You won't competing against them in the RD round.

    ED to me is only for situations where the school truly is your first choice (or a close second) and money does not matter and you feel that you need the extra push (or for schools like Penn where your legacy hook is only good for ED). To go for an ED schools just so you have a slightly better chance to land in a "top 30" makes no sense unless that school really is at the top of your list in terms of fit and $. Even with SCEA for HYP, you can still apply rolling admissions to many great programs, including excellent honors programs at state schools. If you get in to your dream school, how great is the rest of your senior year going to be. If you are deferred, I say no harm, no foul. You might be even be able to tweak your essays or switch an LoR for your RD schools. If you are rejected, maybe you need to lower your sights or that "clever" common app essay is falling flat. In any event, you have more information for the RD process. Yes, you get feedback also if you apply to non restrictive EA schools, and if they are a top choice like HYP, nothing wrong with maximizing the chances of an early positive decision, but if they are not top choices, the upside is so much less.
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  • sgopal2sgopal2 3915 replies52 threads Senior Member
    The Naviance scattergrams can be generated for un-hooked applicants. Normally the scattergrams contain ALL of the candidates from your HS within the past 5 years. But there is a way that your guidance counselor can create scattergrams where the hooked candidates are not included. Have your counselor create these and see where you fall. If you are still landing in the upper outer quadrant, then you have a chance.
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  • sgopal2sgopal2 3915 replies52 threads Senior Member
    If you live in a nearby town to HYP: Boston, Cambridge, Princeton, West Windsor, New Haven, Wallingford, etc. Then one thing to keep in mind that Faculty kids are often given preference when it comes to admission.

    So although the 4-5 kids/year to HYP seem like a lot, this may be inflated with children of faculty. You really need to get an assessment of your chances as an unhooked applicant.
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  • sgopal2sgopal2 3915 replies52 threads Senior Member
    To add onto @Hamurtle. I agree that UChicago might be a good fit. On the UChicago forum here, one of the posters last year calculated out the acceptance rate by round. I don't remember exactly, but it was something like this:

    EA: ~ 3%
    ED 1: ~20%
    ED 2: ~ 17%
    RD: 3-4%
    Total: 7%

    About 2/3 of the class is filled at Chicago after the early rounds (EA/ED1/ED2). So the RD round is incredibly competitive. Many top notch candidates get shut out completely. Other top schools with binding early programs have a similar pattern. More than half of each incoming class is filled by early action/early decision. Of all of the top 10 schools, UChicago seems to have a healthy chance of admission for an 'unhooked' candidate, along with an ED boost.

    An alternate strategy is to apply ED to a non-HYP ivy + simultaneous EA Chicago. Then if deferred in ED round, switch your UChicago application to ED2. This would effectively give you three shots on goal for the early round:

    1) ED ivy
    2) EA Chicago
    3) ED2 Chicago

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