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National Merit cutoff predictions

luvmygirlsluvmygirls Registered User Posts: 124 Junior Member
edited December 2013 in National Merit Scholarships
This question is for all of the people who enjoy perusing statistics- any thoughts whether this year will see a drop in the cutoffs for NMS? It's going to be a long, crazy wait for us in PA!
Post edited by luvmygirls on

Replies to: National Merit cutoff predictions

  • EastCoast1EastCoast1 Registered User Posts: 81 Junior Member
    My guess is, on avg, drop by 2pts.
  • localnerdykidlocalnerdykid Registered User Posts: 19 New Member
    A lot of states had their highest in the past decade for the class of 2014. My prediction is that they all go down at least 1 or 2. Typically, all the states change in the same direction each year.
  • luvmygirlsluvmygirls Registered User Posts: 124 Junior Member
    I hope that you are right. My daughter scored 217 in PA (which was the cutoff last year.) If cutoffs do not rise, she will be thrilled!
  • PAMom21PAMom21 Registered User Posts: 700 Member
    Luvmygirls, for better or worse, I'm waiting here with you in PA! Good luck. My son has a 220, but given the crazy increases last year, I'm not taking anything for granted just yet. A decrease would be nice.
  • brawny77brawny77 Registered User Posts: 86 Junior Member
    With the Jump they took for the class of 2014, I really doubt that they go up, in fact I bet they go down a bit. zThere were a lot of really dissapointed kids who thought they had it in the bag and then saw their state scores go up by 2 or 3 points. Luckily my son had a 230 here in Texas. But his little brother is a soph. and got a 194 this year so he will have to see a 25 point jump next year to be in the ballpark.
  • AlwaysBorderlineAlwaysBorderline Registered User Posts: 47 Junior Member
    Got a 209. Last year was 210 for michigan. Do you think im expected to get it? Score cutoff has usually been 207-211. Mean is 209. So far I've been hearing rumors that it will decrease a little bit. The curve was harsh. But I've been hearing of quite a few 210+ granted all the smart people I talk to, and the smartest region in the state. PLEASE CHANCE ME...so nervous.
  • York00York00 Registered User Posts: 196 Junior Member
    Since your score is the mean, I'd guess you have a good chance at getting NM. Unfortunately, we do not have the foresight to say with absolute certainty. I am in a similar situation; I received a 215 in Texas, one point less than last year's cutoff.

    Assuming all state scores decrease as expected, we'll be fine. At least commended is guaranteed! :-)
  • York00York00 Registered User Posts: 196 Junior Member
    Disregard that, last year for Texas was 219. Oh well. :-)
  • ctl987ctl987 Registered User Posts: 1,466 Senior Member
    re pa scores, my guess is 217 and above will make it, my kid was 216 and just missed last year. pa has only hit 217 twice in approx the last 15 years and last year was insanely high. Yes, this year could be insanely high too but that would be weird for it to happen 2 years in a row. hope that helps.... to the mom with the 220 in pa kid, should be safe for sure. 217 more of a yikes but my best guess and for pa, i can make a very good guess, is yes.
  • luvmygirlsluvmygirls Registered User Posts: 124 Junior Member
    Yes, we are in the "yikes" range. My daughter has a 217. I really hope your predictions are correct!
  • ctl987ctl987 Registered User Posts: 1,466 Senior Member
    luvmygirls,. you can make a better educated guess when the state scores come out early next year. when they came out for my kid, i had a sinking feeling about my own but still held on that since pa was such a steady state re psat scores, he'd still make it. the good news on pa is it's as steady a state as one can have. the score range as I remember is usually 214 or 215 with a couple of small spikes. last year, from 214 to 217 was the biggest "spike" ever. from what the preliminary reports are, scores seem to be a little down this year? However, scores nationwide are not what counts for us. it's the pa scores. Good luck. check out temple if ur kid is interested. They upped their merit aid a lot for the kids who just started college this year and your kid's projected SAT score should land her a nice scholly at Temple. psat scores don't matter at Temple. feel free to talk to me more. maybe on our pages would be better than here. i know a lot more about colleges than i did a year ago and with their psat scores being so close, i have an idea about what;s out there for her projected SAT score. a lot of other folks on here are great resources too. and back to the PSAT, to say i was obsessive in second guessing and researching to estimate last year;s psat cutoff is sadly an understatement. but one plus is i can offer is that a 217 should make it in pa. i can make a better guess once the state scores come out next year.
  • hofmannmdhofmannmd Registered User Posts: 14 New Member
    I hope you are correct as well. My son scored a 213 in SD. The cut off this year was a 206 in SD. One student did exceptionally well at his school with a 232. I wish my son had bothered to study! In any event, I hope the cut off scores stay the same or go down a bit.
  • mommabear48mommabear48 Registered User Posts: 83 Junior Member
    a lot of kids don't study. 213 is a great score regardless. sometimes, we lose sight of that in the NM chase. in fact, even the "barely" commended students have projected SAT's around 2000 and up, which is pretty darn good.
  • 1203southview1203southview Registered User Posts: 464 Member
    the cut off in California was 223 this year. My son made it with some room with a 233 score.
This discussion has been closed.