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National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

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Replies to: National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

  • mnpapa29mnpapa29 85 replies2 threads Junior Member
    @profdad2021 go to the concordance tables and look for the "section to section concordance, redesigned PSAT 2015 and future to PSAT 2014." On the right side of the page. Reading and writing score of 660 equates to a 125. A math score of 720 equates to a 72. 125 + 72 = 197. So this year's 204 equates to last year's 197. Last year a 210 was needed in Michigan and so the 197 concordance SEEMINGLY falls well below the cutoff. BUT NOBODY WILL KNOW FOR SURE UNTIL SEPTEMBER. These tables could be off, and nothing is written in stone.
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  • profdad2021profdad2021 498 replies12 threads Member
    Thanks for that calculation. But I'm just confused. Most online sources are saying that the cutoffs will be lower this year than last. Maybe I get it.....even if prep scholar were right (which probably they aren't), the new cutoff for Michigan would be around 200 and this converted 197 would be too low. Oh well. It was fun to imagine! My kid performs exceptionally well in the classroom and not quite as well on standardized tests. If I had to choose, I'd go with the in-class performance because of its relationship to sustained effort. So there you go!
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  • LeafyseadragonLeafyseadragon 200 replies8 threads Junior Member
    Apologies in advance for my ignorance, but I don't know where you guys are finding these numbers in the two hundreds. I just looked up my son's score and he got 1460. 730 on both sections. Help? We are in California
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  • websensationwebsensation 2119 replies39 threads Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    @profdad2021 I am sure colleges will look at GPA, EC and essays more than any standardized tests. Standardized tests are not good predictors of success in college but yet colleges continue to use them in admission process.
    edited January 2016
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  • mnpapa29mnpapa29 85 replies2 threads Junior Member
    @profdad2021 if prep scholar is right, your son's 204 will be just fine. But the release of the concordance tables last night appeared to change everything. The most consistent prediction I've heard SINCE LAST NIGHT is that in high cutoff states the cutoff will be just a few points lower than last year, in many states the cutoff will be almost the same, and that in a few states the cutoff will exactly be a point or two higher. Again - that could be wrong, but in my opinion not nearly as wrong as Prep scholar.
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  • profdad2021profdad2021 498 replies12 threads Member
    Yes my kid is set on high school performance. Would be nice if standardized test scores were higher but the "gap" isn't large. And if there is to be a gap, it is better for the performance to exceed the test scores, not the other way around.
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  • mom3epsmom3eps 45 replies0 threads Junior Member
    AZ prediction?
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  • profdad2021profdad2021 498 replies12 threads Member
    See bottom of score report. Will list a single number and your kid's will be HIGH. National Merit Selection Index.
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  • mnpapa29mnpapa29 85 replies2 threads Junior Member
    @Leafyseadragon 730 both sections = a selection index of 219.
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  • YnotgoYnotgo 3880 replies58 threads Senior Member
    @Leafyseadragon If you are on the CB website, there is a "NMSC Selection Index" link at the top. Or, if you download the PDF, it's on page 3.
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  • LeafyseadragonLeafyseadragon 200 replies8 threads Junior Member
    @mnpapa29 - close, but probably no proverbial cigar! Damn California!
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  • websensationwebsensation 2119 replies39 threads Senior Member
    @profdad2021 Your kid will do well in college because class room performance is the best indicator.
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  • higheredrockshigheredrocks 234 replies0 threads Junior Member
    Don't use the PSAT score for the concordance tables -- too much variation among sections to be accurate. Go to page three of the table pdf and use the three subscore tables (Reading, Writing/Language, and Math), since those are the scores used to determine the NM SI score. Even though you would think that you could lower all the cutoffs (since the top score is 228 rather than 240), my son's 215 this year seems to correspond to 213 last year. Fortunately, we're in Tennessee, so he has a chance.
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  • YnotgoYnotgo 3880 replies58 threads Senior Member
    Regarding the concordance tables, try this method:

    1. Go to https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/psat-nmsqt-preliminary-concordance-tables-2015.pdf

    2. Go to page 3.

    3. In the right column of each of the 3 subject tables, find your new subject scores. (The three scores on the scale from 8-38.) Your score will probably show up multiple times in the right column.

    4. Note the maximum and minimum old value in the left column that corresponds to your new score in the right column.

    5. Add up all 3 minimum scores. Also, add up all 3 maximum scores separately.

    6. This gives you the range of old style scores for your new score that you can compare to your state's historical cutoffs.

    Because the test scores are not granular enough, in many states your range will span old scores that did qualify and old scores that didn't. So, then you will just have to wait until September.
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  • profdad2021profdad2021 498 replies12 threads Member
    Yeah that is what is so strange. That with the lower maximum, still the "converted" score is lower, not higher. I DO love numbers so this is kinda fun. Scores are circulating at my kid's regional math and science center and mine finds it tough to see such higher scores from other students. Math and science students are so competitive! So I've told mine to just suffer through with the unweighted 4.0, A+ grades in advanced calc and honors physics and AP computer science as a junior, etc etc. Oh yeah, and D1 committed athlete. Such a burden!
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  • randomletterrandomletter 4 replies0 threads New Member
    There seems to be a discrepancy between the Concordance and actual historical percentages. Based upon posts from this site the cutoffs for 99% are roughly 690V, 720M and 1400 total. From the Concordance these translate to 132 CR+W, 72M and 206 total. According to this chart http://phs.princetonk12.org/guidance/Spotlight/S03A7EC5E-03A7ECF9.1/understanding-psat-nmsqt-scores.pdf, The prior test's math cutoff for 99% was 74 vs the 72 per the Concordance, and the 99% Section Index cutoff was 215 vs 206 per the Concordance. Verbal is a little more complicated but the 99% CR + V was probably above 140 compared with the 132 per the Concordance.

    Based on this analysis, the Concordance equivalent scores are probably lower than what should actually be compared with last year's NMSF cutoff scores.
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  • zaaarpzaaarp 12 replies0 threads New Member
    Any chance for 213 in NY?
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  • mom3epsmom3eps 45 replies0 threads Junior Member
    or 216 AZ?
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  • childishrambinochildishrambino 8 replies3 threads New Member
    Does GA traditionally have a higher cutoff score? My SI is 218..
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  • CA1543CA1543 1610 replies8 threads Senior Member
    @childishrambino -- Please see this list of NM Semifinalist State by State cut-off scores: http://www.fairtest.org/sites/default/files/NationalMeritSemifinalist2016-scores.pdf
    Georgia was 218 last time. I think it will likely be a little lower for the 2016 PSAT test takers.
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