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National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

Replies to: National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

• 16 replies2 threads New Member
Yeah the concordance tables aren't really making much sense... I'm in the top 98% (which usually qualifies for nmsc in my state) but the concordance tables say that my score is equivalent to a 197 last year, which is a lot lower than I think it should be.
• 16 replies2 threads New Member
Also, I got a 680 on both sections this year, but last year I got r-65, m-62, & w-76. If you add zeros to those, add them up, and divide by 3, the average section score would be 676 2/3, so slightly lower than this year (and if you do it by averaging the reading & writing first, it's 662.5) so it doesn't make much sense that my score this year would equate to a lower score than that...
• 72 replies20 threads Junior Member
I got a 208 this year in Nebraska. The cutoff last year was a 209. Because the total score went down by 12 point (5%), I assume the cutoff score will also go down by 5% to a 199. So this would mean I would qualify right? Obviously this isn't how the cutoff is chosen but I think it's a pretty good estimation. What do you think? Is my logic here solid or am I missing something?
• 70 replies15 threads Junior Member
I hate to be that guy, but just to confirm, a 220 SI score is on the bubble for California correct?
• 2120 replies39 threads Senior Member
@LAD2266 IMO (note it's just my gut feeling), 220 for CA has 50% chance of being the cutoff SI score. Up in the air, as they say.
• 200 replies8 threads Junior Member
@LAD2266 that's my general feeling after stalking these boards all afternoon. My kid got 219 so I'm right with you.
• 14 replies3 threads New Member
edited January 2016
217 SI Score from KY here, 1460 raw. Concordance table shows equivalent of 219-221 on the previous exam, with the cutoff for KY at the time being 210. Is my logic correct in suspecting that a 217 would be passable for NMSF?
edited January 2016
@DWilliam Yep that logic is sound.
@mom3eps 216 in AZ will almost certainly be semi-finalist.
• 127 replies8 threads Junior Member
Is this 220 si score on the 228 scale or 240?
• 2120 replies39 threads Senior Member
@DWilliam You made it for sure since you are in KY.
• 29 replies0 threads New Member
So what is the cutoff for receiving an asterisk beside your SI score?
• 70 replies15 threads Junior Member
edited January 2016
@shiftydraw It was on the new scale out of 228, but when I converted it using the concordance tables it was still 220/240 which is weird.
edited January 2016
• 2 replies0 threads New Member
edited January 2016
I've been searching online for info but I'm more confused than when I started! (New at this!) Some are saying lower scoring states will have a higher cutoff than last year but others are saying cutoff will be a few points lower than the 2014 cut off.

We're in NC, 220 SI, 1450 TS-99%tile (750 r&w-99th%tile, 700 math-98th%tile, 37 reading, 38 writing&language, 35 math.) Any help/guidance would be be greatly appreciated!
edited January 2016
220 should be safe in all states except NJ/DC.
• 2258 replies33 threads Senior Member
Crossing my finger as my son got 221 (VA).
• 2 replies0 threads New Member
Great! Thanks!