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National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

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Replies to: National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

  • hcmom65hcmom65 270 replies23 threads Junior Member
    Ok, i am new to this...but have been scouring the boards. My DD got a 217 in CA. If I just do simple math like last year it was a 223 (the cutoff in CA) out of 240 for NMS semi-finalist, then why wouldn't I take that percentage and multiply it against 228 (the new total) and get a 212 for the cut off...or something around there??? Why are people thinking it would be near 220??? thanks in advance.
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  • Ohiodad51Ohiodad51 2464 replies41 threadsForum Champion Athletic Recruits Forum Champion
    Ok, I am very confused. Looking at my daughter's score report her selection index is 213, which is right at the cut off in our state last year. But, comparing her PSAT score to the concordance table yields a score of 208. Are those two numbers reporting different things?
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  • gusmahlergusmahler 351 replies3 threads Member
    @Shiryc 224 is easily semi finalist, Even in NJ.
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  • gusmahlergusmahler 351 replies3 threads Member
    @Ohiodad51 Cocordence tables were made before the PSAT was scored and are not necessarily accurate.
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  • gusmahlergusmahler 351 replies3 threads Member
    @PremiumSalt Asterisk only indicates you're not a junior eligible for national merit scholar.
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  • PremiumSaltPremiumSalt 29 replies0 threads New Member
    I don't understand how a score from this year could be translated into a lower score using the concordance tables. It just doesn't make sense to me. :-?
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  • YnotgoYnotgo 3880 replies58 threads Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    The PDF metadata in the concordance table document says that it was originally created on 12/14/2015 and last modified on 1/4/2016. (Though last modified could include "saved to a different filename".)
    edited January 2016
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  • MassmommMassmomm 4021 replies82 threads Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    @gusmahler, 220 isn't "safe" in MA. My son got that in 2013 and didn't make the cut-off for our state. I don't think our cut-off has been below 221 in years.
    edited January 2016
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  • Jay12321Jay12321 33 replies5 threads Junior Member
    edited January 2016
    I already posted this in the main thread, but this may be a better place to post it.

    Ok, please excuse that this may be long and I'll be using bullet points; it's been a long day, but hear me out here.

    1. On the Selection Index page of the score reports (online version) it says they will review about 1.5 million SIs. 1% of 1.5m is 15,000. This means that more than 1% of test takers will score within the 16,000 finalists.
    2. When I convert my scores using the concordance tables, I get a score nowhere near the top 1% (206 out of 240). However, I scored a 1420 (211si) which puts me within the top 1% by about 30 points composite (1390s have reported being in the 99th). Others have already detailed problems with these tables, so it's safe to say we shouldn't put much trust in the charts.
    3. If I convert by using my percentiles (99% in math and verbal) to the percentiles on the old tests (meaning that I took my 99th percentile in both math and verbal and converted to what a 99th percentile would have been on the old test it converts to a 222 out of 240 (and that is using the lowest possible scores to qualify as the top 1%). So, is it possible that converting your scores this method provides a more accurate idea on how this converts to the old tests?

    Any feedback/criticism is welcome, I just haven't seen this method tried yet and I thought it provides and interesting view. Hopefully this doesn't come off as the ramblings of a lunatic.
    edited January 2016
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  • greeneggsandsam9greeneggsandsam9 213 replies13 threads Junior Member
    Will 206 be enough for commendation?
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  • Studious99Studious99 888 replies23 threads Member
    @greeneggsandsam9 depends on the percentile. If that is like 97th or 98th percentile you're probably good to go. Maybe 96. Commendation doesn't depend on your state.
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  • sciencenerd2017sciencenerd2017 5 replies0 threads New Member
    edited January 2016
    W=CR=M=36. 1440 total. 720 each section. CB gave 216SI. Can that make semifinalist cutoff inTX?
    edited January 2016
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  • MCW2017MCW2017 13 replies2 threads Junior Member
    Reading/Writing = 700 (35 and 35)
    Math = 750 (37.5)
    SI = 215
    99th percentile
    Any guesses on chances for semifinalist in NY?
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  • masond123masond123 17 replies3 threads New Member
    Oy, I guess I'm one of those people. I got a 220 in CA, so just to clarify, if 220 is the "cutoff" score, will people with 220's qualify? Or be the last score to be denied?
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  • websensationwebsensation 2120 replies39 threads Senior Member
    @masond123 When it says cutoff score will be so and so score, it includes the score given. In your instance, 220 is the cutoff score, meaning 220 and over "cut off" or "carved out".
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  • gusmahlergusmahler 351 replies3 threads Member
    @Massmomm while 221 was the cutoff last year, that was out of 240. It's out of 228 this year. 220 should be safe in almost every state.
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  • websensationwebsensation 2120 replies39 threads Senior Member
    I wonder when a private company or organization will come out with a persuasive table of cutoff scores?
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  • jcoleisakingjcoleisaking 1 replies0 threads New Member
    I went into this test getting a 1510 on the practice test and ended up getting a 1410 with an SI of 210. Prepscholar predicts 203 for Illinois, yet it seems too low. Do you guys think I would be semi in Illinois? I know I'll probably be just above or just under.
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  • maksbowmaksbow 19 replies1 threads New Member
    will 227 be enough for TX? Worried that cutoff will be a perfect 228
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  • aronaron 127 replies14 threads Junior Member
    @MS2015 @liveonlife @beaglemom @Mamelot @EarlVanDorn @mdcmom @mathyone @PAMom21 @3scoutsmom @gettingschooled Thank you all for the helpful info on the massive PSAT thread. I'm hoping people will post any further analysis or credible info on this more manageable thread. DD had a 1450 and a selection index of 217 in MD, last year her score was 218. She was disappointed. Typically she tests very well---800 on SAT Subject Test in Bio as a sophomore, for example.

    Has anyone had discussions with college admissions officers as to how they will be assessing and handling PSAT scores for the class of 2017? I'm pretty unhappy that 2017 kids are caught in the transition for both PSAT and SAT.
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