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Effect of graduating college in a presidential election year?

blue1516blue1516 35 replies13 discussionsRegistered User Posts: 48 Junior Member
Wondering if graduating college in a presidential election year has any effect on a student's employment outcome. Does it affect hiring in the federal government? Finance or other sectors?
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Replies to: Effect of graduating college in a presidential election year?

  • ucbalumnusucbalumnus 76129 replies663 discussionsRegistered User Posts: 76,792 Senior Member
    The campaign itself could cause the existence of temporary jobs in the candidates' and parties' campaigns.

    If candidates or parties other than the incumbent ones win, then the political priorities may be changed, which can change the job outlook in parts of the government and sectors that may be affected by changes in laws and regulations.
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  • boudersbouders 2417 replies166 discussionsRegistered User Posts: 2,583 Senior Member
    Law school admissions became a lot more competitive after the 2016 election.
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  • privatebankerprivatebanker 4951 replies61 discussionsRegistered User Posts: 5,012 Senior Member
    edited June 12
    @bouders

    That’s interesting data. Seems too close in time to have that info and studied.

    Do you have the actual data showing this or a cite. Like to read through it to see if it was correlation or causation or random event.
    edited June 12
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  • ASKMotherASKMother 186 replies1 discussionsRegistered User Posts: 187 Junior Member
    This article shows a 'prediction' for a more competitive 2017-18 law school admissions season... but doesn't show fact.
    https://www.usnews.com/education/blogs/law-admissions-lowdown/articles/2017-09-04/check-out-predictions-about-2017-2018-law-school-application-trends
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  • boudersbouders 2417 replies166 discussionsRegistered User Posts: 2,583 Senior Member
    @privatebanker The phenomenon even has a name, which I won't repeat here, because I might get in trouble, but it's mentioned in this article - https://abovethelaw.com/2018/04/all-the-cool-and-smart-kids-are-staying-away-from-law-school/ That article was written after the first cycle after the election and it was thought to be an aberration. This article was written more recently - http://www.nationaljurist.com/prelaw/trump-bump-continues Here's some data analysis https://blog.spiveyconsulting.com/2011-2018-application-volume-and-lsat-data/ Applications are up another 3.5% so far this year. https://blog.spiveyconsulting.com/2018-2019-cycle-volume-as-of-may-31st/
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  • lookingforwardlookingforward 32224 replies336 discussionsRegistered User Posts: 32,560 Senior Member
    If you want a job in DC, there's often turnover in politically oriented work, just after an election. Affects the housing market, too, lol.
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  • privatebankerprivatebanker 4951 replies61 discussionsRegistered User Posts: 5,012 Senior Member
    edited June 12
    It’s a survey. Eh. Not anything about the quality or level of competition.

    A one year sugar high they called it. lol.

    2.9 increase and flat this year.

    Perhaps short term response or perhaps the larger amount of grads processing through or maybe just a natural anomaly.

    It is interesting.

    Not sure if this means it’s more competitive?

    One school had 35 percent increase in admissions after years of falling and in trouble. Not sure how difficult that was to be admitted.

    Also not so smart to leave saddled in debt with poor job prospects and new administrations around the corner in one or five years.

    I don’t think this made anything more competitive but good for the schools to have some increases.
    edited June 12
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  • Cardinal FangCardinal Fang 18182 replies155 discussionsRegistered User Posts: 18,337 Senior Member
    The hiring benefit in Washington would only be relevant when a new President came in. Lots of openings occurred in 2009 and 2017, but not so much in 2013 when the President was re-elected.
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  • ScipioScipio 8464 replies477 discussionsRegistered User Posts: 8,941 Senior Member
    I would point out that any observed associations between presidential elections and law school admissions (or anything else) are merely that - associations, and do not prove or even imply cause and effect.

    By coincidence presidential election years are also both Summer Olympic years and leap years. So you could just as readily posit a connection between law school admissions and the occurrence of February 29th or the awarding of women's gymnastics Olympic gold medals.
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  • roethlisburgerroethlisburger 2645 replies137 discussionsRegistered User Posts: 2,782 Senior Member
    The federal government employs over 2 million people, not including postal workers and active duty military. Very few of those are political appointees and so graduating in an election year has little to no effect on overall hiring.
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  • ucbalumnusucbalumnus 76129 replies663 discussionsRegistered User Posts: 76,792 Senior Member
    edited June 12
    Changes in political priorities may affect not just government jobs, but also those of companies that contract with the government and those of companies regulated by the government.

    Note that government jobs which are not political appointees may also be affected by decisions to increase or decrease the job scope and size of a government agency.
    edited June 12
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  • doschicosdoschicos 20260 replies209 discussionsRegistered User Posts: 20,469 Senior Member
    "Note that government jobs which are not political appointees may also be affected by decisions to increase or decrease the job scope and size of a government agency."

    In 2017, there was a decrease as a hiring freeze followed by a workforce reduction was implemented.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_States_federal_hiring_freeze
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  • blue1516blue1516 35 replies13 discussionsRegistered User Posts: 48 Junior Member
    What about in investment banking or Wall St? I read an article that said historically the stock market has better returns in the third and fourth years of an election cycle than in the first and second years.
    Do companies expand in an election year or wait to see who wins and how that could impact them?
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