2021 Admissions Statistics

marlowe1
Tue, 11 Apr 2017 17:02:55 +0000

The analysis of you crackheads is truly impressive and makes me proud to claim you all as U. of C. students, alums or parents!

I’ve no doubt missed a stroke or two in this evolving discussion. However, I don’t believe there’s an answer to the question that matters most to me - whether being an ED applicant gives you an edge you wouldn’t have as an EA or RD applicant. That is, holding all other things steady, is it just a bit easier, relatively speaking, to be admitted ED? And is ED1 more advantageous than ED2? It seems to me that the statistics we are discussing here, whatever they turn out to be in actuality, can’t tell us that, because we don’t know the composition of the respective pools quality-wise, whatever their numbers.

To me that would be the information I would really want to have if I was a kid with good credentials and a liking for UChicago. While it sounds scary to say that leaving your app to the RD stage means you get only a 1 in 50 shot, we really don’t know just how much your chances are realistically lengthened by that choice. We can assume that the 50 will include greater numbers of less impressive apps from kids who never had a chance. If you’re a top quality applicant who didn’t quite make it at an earlier stage into your favored school you surely know this. If you’re a more ordinary applicant you may still want to roll the dice at little cost - you might get lucky or might be better in the eyes of the admissions people than you think you are. For kids truly deterred by statistics, would it matter much to your decision that your chances are actually 1 in 25 rather than 1 in 50?

I have enjoyed the speculations of all of you and am all for having as much hard information as possible as soon as possible. However, it seems to me that the essential information will likely never be known and may be unknowable. What we do know doesn’t actually help those of us who are kids or their parents very much.