2021 Admissions Statistics

JBStillFlying
Tue, 11 Apr 2017 17:51:34 +0000

@Marlowe1 I actually disagree. There should be enough information in what they’ve told us to start assigning some Bayesian probabilities to the admit rates. It might also require things like guessing the make-up of those different admit pools (the results pages on CC might be of assistance on that one, assuming that the posts are at all representative).

I’d take them at their word that the RD admit rate was 2% and I believe that referred to the entire pool (including those deferred from EA/EDI). I believe they admitted a smidgen of those Early-deferreds who stayed in the RD round and .5% sounds a lot better than saying they admitted only 30, or 40, or 50, simply because it’s unheard of for a school to admit so few from the deferred pool.

Whether your chances are 2%, or 4%, or 6% or 8% that is just plain low. However, there is valuable information there! If some pools are 2% or 4%, and the overall rate is 8%, then - ERGO! - other pools have a really high relative rate of admission! Conclusion - apply as part of those higher admit pools, unless you have an extraordinary talent or a particular hook that is very much in demand at the top colleges (not just at UChicago - you most likely need to be a competitive applicant to go non-binding on the premise that it is on these pools that UChicago is going to be spending its merit aid).

You may not even need cardinal values, merely ordinal ones, if the difference is significant (i.e. 30% ED vs. 4% EA or 2% RD).