A conceptual issue on admissions probability

interesteddad
Sat, 26 May 2007 00:33:47 +0000

cellar:

Note that your daughter’s odds at any one of her colleges were radically better than the odds outlined in the original post.

With stats above the 50th percentile (I’m assuming you factored class rank and the whole shebang), then she was a legitimate applicant at her reach schools, confirmed by the fact that she got into 42% of them. Note my definition of a “reach” above as a school where you have roughly a 50/50 shot. You and I clearly view things the same way. Your definition of a match and a safety corresponds with mine, too – again considering the totality of the app, not just the SAT scores.

That’s a far cry from the 10% percentages cited in the original example. That math…applying to a whole bunch of schools where your individual app has a 10% chance and thinking you can make it up on volume…is dangerous as heck.

Basically, what I’m saying kids…don’t count on Harvard unless you can come up with specific reasons why your app has a much better than 10% chance of acceptance.