A conceptual issue on admissions probability

interesteddad
Fri, 25 May 2007 21:11:06 +0000

For example, if your estimated chances at your top five choices are 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, and 30%, the odds of rejection resulting at ALL of them should be .90 x .85 x .80 x .75 x .70 = 32%, meaning that you have a 68% chance of getting into at least one of them (even though your chances at any one is no better than 30%).



That theory is playing with fire. Trust me, you do not want to approach college admissions in that way.

The bulk of your list should be schools that you like where you have a realistically good chance of being accepted, better than 50%/50%. Then, you want a school or two where you are all but guaranteed admissions. Finally, you might want to add a reach or two, but again, there is no point unless you can identify a realistic reason why they might accept you. An ideal reach would be a school where you have maybe 50%/50% odds.

To make odds predictions, you have to figure how you app stacks up against the other apps in your exact category. For example, a Native American applicant from a reservation in Montana is in a different stack with different odds than a white kid from an affluent New Jersey suburb.