A conceptual issue on admissions probability

interesteddad
Sat, 26 May 2007 11:47:16 +0000

cellar:

I think that the distinction you and I are both making is that we are talking about “credible reaches” rather than just reaches. You have to look at the totality of the application (scores, class rank, curriculum, demographics, and “something interesting”, or lack thereof) and evaluate whether you have a prayer.

Too many kids just look at the median SAT scores. At elite colleges, that’s meaningless because the SAT scores of the applicant pool are often the same as the SAT scores of the enrolled class. In other words, the SAT scores won’t get you accepted.

A classic failure is to not look at your specific grouping. For example, looking only at the SAT scores for UVa is a huge mistake if you are applying out-of-state. The actual SAT scores for out of state students is probably 100 points higher. So you have to evaluate based on your specific group.

The adcoms view applications differently. The same stuff that gets a Latino applicant from Little Havana Miami accepted might not get a white girl from Westchester County accepted.

It’s also important to understand the cost of the multiple reach strategy. There are schools where you really want to put 100% effort into the application. Let’s say, for example, that Swarthmore is a legitimate 50%/50% reach based on the totality of the application. If you apply early decision and put together an enthusiastic application that demonstrates considerable, specific knowledge and fit, your chances of admission go way up. If the same applicant dashes off the application as number six in the stack after five “wing and a prayer” applications, the odds of getting accepted go way down, simply because the application lacks the enthusiasm that makes a difference when the “acceptances” and “rejections” all have the same SAT scores.

The key is to look at your app and try to find a reason that a school would accept you. You can have all the stats in the world and still be a “no prayer” applicant at a place like Harvard. You simply can’t “wow” them with stats. There has to be something about the application that stands out. Once you are applying to schools where you have a “stand out” application, then you get into the odds you are talking about, where you might get accepted at two equivalent schools and rejected at two others, simply because the adcom was in a different mood or you offered what the school was looking for that year.

I guess the point is, random odds alone won’t turn a rejection into an acceptance. The caution about the theory that started this thread: if you are applying to reach schools where you have no prayer, it doesn’t matter if you apply to a million of them. You probably aren’t going to get accepted. You can’t “make it up on volume” unless you are a legitimate applicant for the schools.