A conceptual issue on admissions probability

Catfish
Sat, 26 May 2007 02:28:29 +0000

I actually did something like this. I think that I calculated a 90% chance of getting into at least one of my schools. It’s obviously not a mathematically rigorous or statistically sound method of estimating chances, but I think that it could be useful as a rule of thumb. Assuming that your scores fall at least in the school’s midrange, because that’s the easiest method of estimating your competitiveness as an applicant, you should apply to enough schools that you feel comfortable with your estimated chance of not getting in anywhere.