A conceptual issue on admissions probability

cellardweller
Sat, 26 May 2007 14:10:53 +0000

idad:

I agree that an early decision strategy requires an entirely different system. With an “all the eggs in one basket” approach, you 'd better be certain about your choice and also about the trade-offs involved in not being able to apply to potentially more attractive schools. I was really more referring to a regular round approach which may be the only option if you are looking for financial aid options or some ultra-selective programs. I also indicated that you needed to look at your stats within the context of your own high school or at least very similar high schools if at all possible.

The comment that the applicant pool overall has similar stats to the admitted pool is somewhat misleading. That may be true overall counting legacies, athletes, URMs and other hooked candidates. Among students applying RD without a major hook, however, those with a higher SAT and Rank combination will be admitted in much greater numbers than those lower ranked. Even at Harvard less than 25% of applicants are in the top 1% of high school candidates in terms of SAT scores and rank but over 75% of admitted candidates fit that profile. While it is also true that some admitted students have extraordinary achievements not captured by SAT and rank, these WOW (walk-on-water) students constitute typically less than 15% of the entering class at places like Harvard or MIT. The vast majority of admitted students are just very bright with very similar profiles. And you simply can’t predict that anybody’s ECs are going to stand out more than somebody else’s. So, while a high academic ranking alone does not guarantee entry at a top school, it certainly offers a major statistical advantage.