A conceptual issue on admissions probability

negru
Fri, 25 May 2007 17:14:24 +0000

Well, theoretically it’s correct, but practically it doesn’t work, because you can’t estimate chances. Look at it this way, admission isn’t TOTALLY random, usually it’s some thing on your app that keeps you out. So if that keeps you out of one place, it will very likely keep you out of other places. It’s not like “harvard admission office has a 30% chance to not spot your F junior year”. So, since it’s not a perfectly random event, i’m not sure if you can apply that reasoning at all.
Although, of course, you can use it roughly…but only like a wild approximation, which can very likely be 100% off. Because we are talking about actual reality, not a math problem. Statistics is only useful when applied on very big numbers. Tossing a coin gives a 50/50% chance. But if you throw it like 20 times, it’s very possible to get something like 16/4. Now, taking into account that you only get one test with applying…statistics won’t tell you much.
So in any case, use it for an approximation, but don’t count on it, at all.