A conceptual issue on admissions probability

b_r_um
Fri, 25 May 2007 17:06:37 +0000

Once your application is completed and submitted the only variable is the adcom’s mood. So your actual chance of admission to one certain college will usually either be (close to) 0 or (close to) 1 and not 0.2 or 0.75. Exceptions are places like Harvard that have to choose from an abundance of equally qualified applicants which inevitably involves some luck.

By the way, you can use the P(A^B)=P(A)*P(B) formula only if A and B are independent events but I doubt that that’s generally true for college admissions.