A conceptual issue on admissions probability

T26E4
Fri, 25 May 2007 17:05:18 +0000

I can understand where you’re coming from but how can one reasonably arrive at the likelihood that THEY will be admitted to any single school?

Especially if you’re talking the ultra selectives. Sure the overall admit rate is 8 or 9% but how would Joe Student know if his chances really were 50% or 1%? Given the holistic admissions policies of those schools, it’d be only a wild guess at best. Heck, the admissions rep himself or herself probably only has a vague, ball park guess at any given candidate – and they’re the ones going to be arguing for/against the decision!

And then you’re multiplying 5 or 6 randomly generated numbers. Might as well flip a coin at that point.

Not trying to be a downer but your initial data generation is near impossible.