Applying To All Ivies

Sam_Lee
Tue, 30 Sep 2008 14:46:39 +0000

dravndn546,

let me expand a little on what i said earlier:
as you probably already know: P(D or C) = P(D) + P(C) - P(D & C)
what is P(D&C)? It’s not P(D) * P(C) because they are not independent.

think of it this way, if someone told you they got into dartmouth already, what’s the probability of him/her getting into cornell? if they were independent, the fact that he/she got into dartmouth shouldn’t matter but we all know it matters. chances are he/she is gonna be in for cornell too.

so P(D&C) should be represented by P(C) * P(D given C) or P(D) * P(C given D). let’s look at P(D) * P(C given D). if we assume that anyone that gets into dartmouth get into cornell also. than P(C given D) is 1.0.

therefore, put that back into original equation: P(D or C) = P(D) + P(C) - P(D)1.0 = P(C). that means you are stuck with the chance of cornell even after applying to both. of course, not everyone that gets into dartmouth is gonna get into cornell but the point if they are *very dependent and there’s huge amount of overlap.

also, as i point out already, as you apply for more schools, your focus on each school is less so your individual P(C), P(D) or whatever would get smaller.

this is why casting a wide net as much as possible isn’t necessarily as good a strategy as one may think. :D

Professor101,
the method of multiplying all the rejection percentages assume independence and it’s not true as explained above.