Calculation regarding wait-list: Do they indicate no hope?

beprepn
Sat, 29 Apr 2006 10:10:48 +0000

They have pretty good models to predict yield. The tough thing for them is the fact that the population changes every year - kids apply to more and more schools resulting in more and more cross admits thereby lowering everybody’s yield. Thus there is reason to hope that their estimate is high. So let’s say that every kid applied to 10% more schools this year. If nobody adjusted for this, all yields would be down 10% I suppose. So best case, Brown yield would be 53% instead of 59% which would mean 150 kids in off of the wait list - a wait list of 2000? I have no idea how big the wait list is.

Absent some unaccounted for change in the stats, it is hard to get in off the waitlist.