Chance me for Penn State University Park and the Honors college

I’m currently an uprising senior. Am I likely to be admitted or rejected from Penn State-university Park? What about the honors college (I would apply for physics)

Junior year:
AP Environmental Geosciences (didn’t take)
AP Physics E and M (2) (I know the score is low, but physics is mostly math, which I am really good at, I wonder if I didn’t devote enough time to the class or something)
AP BC Calc (5)
AP US History (3)
Honors Spanish
Academic English 11 (could have taken honors but that would have been hell)

Senior Year:
AP Lang
AP European History
AP Computer Science
Honors Linear Algebra
Astronomy/Health (slash indicates semester classes)
Honors international relations/economics

Overall weighted GPA so far~ 4.5
Unweighted: 3.4

New SAT: 1420/1600 (if you superscore, 1430, only took it twice) 750 math, 680 reading
ACT: 30 (I will take it again)
Might take subject tests

Extracurriculars:
President and founder of chess club

Possible President of the astronomy club for this next year (it is complex, the club got started and never really did much this past year but now we have a telescope and I may see if me and my teacher and get it going again)

Babysitter for maybe 50 hours

Investment club

Model United Nations

played freshman and JV soccer 9 and 10th grade and made varsity 11th grade but quit, also played club soccer in 10th

race and gender: male, south asian and white, possibly native american but not confirmed

Impossible to chance for Schreyer; super subjective. Write good essays that are interesting and thoughtful.

At a recent summer visit day and tour they said they look at GPA first and then SAT score.