Do odds increase when applying to more reaches?

NiceUnparticularMan
Mon, 04 Dec 2023 02:21:45 +0000

The probabilities observably are not, and really cannot be, independent.

I think reasonable models are going to suggest that if you do a good job identifying your best fits and apply to your best chances, as few as 3 reaches could practically exhaust your chances, meaning the chance you will get into your fourth-best reach opportunity conditional on being rejected at all three of your top three reach opportunities is getting negligibly small.

And I think beyond your best 5-6 reaches, it is getting implausible any reasonable model will show non-negligible conditional chances for additional colleges.

A couple caveats.

If there is some unusual circumstance which you are hoping will lead to unusual results, maybe a few extra reaches is warranted. Like, you had a bad semester of grades but have a reason for that and are asking for an accommodation. Advice I like is apply to some reaches assuming no accommodation, but then 2-3 more assuming there will be an accommodation.

Alternatively, if you are just not sure yet how to rank your reaches in terms of personal preference, that can also be a reason to do a few more. Like, sometimes people are not sure between universities and LACs. In cases like that, you might have more reaches due to having a decent number of university reaches and decent number of LAC reaches.