Do odds increase when applying to more reaches?

NiceUnparticularMan
Mon, 04 Dec 2023 20:11:13 +0000

I definitely think if you account for a little variability in what individual colleges are looking for, it explains why 2-3 reaches could sometimes be sufficient, but maybe not always. In particular, I think if you are interested in LACs, they are by nature a little more variable in terms of their preferences, and just have smaller applicant pools and smaller target enrollment classes more subject to quirky matching effects in general. So maybe an LAC-heavy reach list will naturally lend itself to a few more reaches.

That said, I do wonder–our college counselors would likely suggest a person interested in all those LACs should try to visit them, also carefully study their websites, possibly talk to students, and try to pick out the ones which they saw as the best fits. And in fact, based on our high school’s experience with admissions to those LACs, they might well nudge some kids in certain directions.

OK, so suppose you synthesized all that and then ranked those colleges by where you thought your were the best fit. You might not get into your best bet. Possibly not your second either. But that is seven colleges–how often really would people get into only their seventh-best bet, and none of their first six best bets?

Anyway, I am raising this issue not to try to be dogmatic about the number of reaches, but more to suggest the real work to be done is in figuring out your best bets. And if you end up with seven reaches you really feel good about, OK. If it is only three, I think OK to that too. What I don’t think you need to do is indiscriminately keep adding more reaches until you run out of Common App slots. Whatever is your list of true best bet reaches, if you have taken the process seriously, is almost surely enough.