Early action vs Early Decision

CollegeAngst
Wed, 21 Sep 2016 16:06:27 +0000

The numbers look interesting if you try to estimate the yield, based on some assumptions.

Assumptions
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ED1 Apps: 3,500
ED 1 Admit rate: 23%
ED 1 Yield: 95%

ED 2 Apps: 2,500. This is the hard one to estimate. of around 34,100 students applying ED/SCEA to the Ivies, 80% were either denied or deferred. That is around 27,000 applicants in limbo who were ready to take a leap on ED. I am assuming that less than 10% will now apply ED2 to UChicago.

ED 2 Admit rate: 15% ( I am assuming a smaller admit rate, because I think this pool will be very strong)

ED 2 Yield: 95%

EA Apps: 8,500
EA Rate: 6%
EA Yield: 70% (Assuming, that the RD yield is rather poor at around 45%, Chicago’s EA yield to fill the 1600+ seat for the class of 2020 must have been pretty high, to give an overall yield as officially stated of 66%. I am taking a conservative number of 70%)
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That means UChicago will already have firm enrollment of 1,100 from these ED1 and ED 2 pools alone.
Given a total class strength of around 1,600 or so, there is not much more room left for either the EA pool or RD pool. If they get around 350 “confirmed” from the EA pool, that would bring the total enrollment to 1,450. That leaves next to no room for the RD pool. I expect the admit rate to be dismal for this pool. I mean it could be in the 1%-3% range

That gives an incredibly high yield for Chicago. Over 80% easily. If things go crazy in the ED2 pool, it could be as high as 90% overall!!

I think with the ED1/ED2 strategy, UChicago is trying to mimic the yield and admit rates of Stanford and Harvard. Remains to be seen if they will succeed.