elephant in the room ...

Somnambulant
Fri, 11 Mar 2011 23:58:16 +0000

ccuser, here’s what I’ve gathered from the first two pages: out of the 8 people that didn’t apply for aid, 7 were accepted and 1 was waitlisted. Out of the 11 people who applied for aid, 5 were waitlisted and 6 were accepted.

So if we were going to assume that these data are representative of the general applicant pool, the probability of acceptance given that one didn’t file for aid is much higher than the probability of acceptance given that one did file for aid.

Again, I’m not claiming that these data prove anything, I’m just saying that his argument was being criticized in the wrong way.