How do you determine a reach/match/safety school?

curious14
Fri, 31 Aug 2007 11:16:11 +0000

I have constructed a quantitative method for building “Reach”, “Expected”, and “Safe” portfolio of schools and a way of defining “Out of Reach” that I think works for most students. Obviously this approach can’t address individual preferences for one type of campus over another but, for what it’s worth, here it is.

The focus is students who are not recruited athletes, URM’s, legacies, or development candidates. My guess is that, at a typical selective LAC, setting aside those groups would eliminate about 40% of available openings. At a medium sized private university, my guess is that those groups capture about 33% of the openings. And at a large flagship state university, again just a guess, but I assume that those groups represent about 25% of the openings. I am assuming a Regular Decision student whose grades are in line with their test scores (easy to figure out from data available at most high schools) and whose EC’s are demanding, with some degree of leadership demonstrated, but no significant accomplishments on the national level. For example, at a most selective LAC’s this kind of candidate should consider a school out of reach if the student’s test scores are below the mid point for the school’s reported scores. At most selective mid-sized private universities this kind of candidate should view a school as out of reach if the student’s scores were below the average of the schools mid-point scores and the 25th percentile. And for a large flagship state university this candidate should view the school as out of reach if the student’s scores are below the 25th percentile for the school. The full list of ranges is listed below. One caveat, if a student is not in the top 10% of their class they should use the mid-sized private university rules for assessing State U chances. The idea is that the student places this school in each category if the student’s scores fall in the range designated for the school. Obviously a little guessing is required to identify scores for some of these ranges but simple linear interpolation should work pretty well.

…LAC’s; Mid Size Private U; Major Flagship State U


Relevant percentile ranges:

Out of Reach 0-50; 0-32; 0-25

Reach 51-75; 33-67; 25-50

Expected 76-87; 68-81; 50-75

Safe 88-100; 82-100; 75-100