How do you think about acceptance rate?

NiceUnparticularMan
Mon, 28 Oct 2024 20:26:06 +0000

circuitrider:

…but not Connecticut College.

I mean I am sure it has happened, but probably there are not a lot of lists like that.

I note it can be fun to play around with Parchment for these purposes, just to see where they have data. Carleton has enough cross-admits in their database with, say, Macalester to say it is statistically significant. With Wesleyan they report a number but it is not statistically significant, implying only a few cross-admits. And then with Connecticut they report no matchups (which doesn’t mean there were none in the real world, just none in their data). Whereas Wesleyan does have some cross-admits with Connecticut, but the report is the same as with Carleton and Wesleyan (meaning only a few). And so on.

Since I was suggesting in this case St Olaf would be an arbitrage opportunity with Connecticut College, I checked that too–no matchups.

Of course in this context, this is a feature not a bug. If you are applying to multiple schools as a hedge against each other, I would think the less overlap they have in applications, the better. Because that would likely help reduce correlated outcomes, aka statistical dependence, which is the mathematical expression of why you can’t guarantee admissions to one of a set of similar colleges just by applying to enough of them.

And that’s sort of the point of all this–to try to figure out when it might be helpful to zig when others like you are zagging.

So, say if you like Wesleyan as a Reach, maybe you also apply to Connecticut College as a Target (with merit potential). And I am not discouraging that.

But if you feel like it, maybe you also add St Olaf as potentially a Likely (depending on your qualifications). Because my bet is the sorts of kids who are reaching for Wesleyan will be less likely to have St Olaf on their list too, and I think that is potentially going to help you get a good option to consider.