I doubt AP research is counted , is it even a credit in the USA?
Personally I think some other schools could be in play. Look at other Russell group schools that are not as out of range as Oxbridge/UCL (would you apply to HYPMS?). Location is going to be something to consider though. English schools are going to be nervous of the effect of Brexit, Scotland maybe less so. There just may be more spaces than in previous years that need filling.