Is he aiming too high?

bclintonk
Thu, 22 Jan 2009 18:03:04 +0000

DunninLA:

There are probably about 20,000 slots at Top 10 universities… you do that math! About 70% of the Sals/Vals will not be attending a top 10 school this August/September.



Dunn,

That 20,000 figure is too high according to my math. Dividing total undergrad enrollments by 4, the top 10 research universities as listed by US News have places for approximately 13,715 freshmen. The top 10 LACs add another 4,532, for a total (20 schools) of 18,247 (top 10 RUs + top 10 LACs).

Going a little further down the list, the top 25 research universities have places for just over 50,000 freshmen (but 16,000 of those are at just three big publics, UC Berkeley, UCLA, and UVA, and most of those slots will go to in-state applicants) The top 25 LACs (excluding the service academies, a special case) have seats for just under 12,000 new matriculants. So leaving aside the problem of in-state v. OOS enrollment at the publics, there are just about enough seats for every val/sal in the country to attend a top 25 university or top 25 LAC.

But of course not every val/sal will apply to, be accepted at, or enroll in a top 25 school. Some may not attend college at all. Some will go to their state flagship, or another state school, or their local community college. Some will go to a lower-ranked private school, chosen perhaps for its generous merit aid, location, religious affiliation, or special programs it offers, or because of family ties or personal allegiances.

Bottom line, you don’t need to be a val/sal to get into a top school, and applicants with ecellent grades, test scores, ECs, recs, essays, etc should keep in mind that the top schools are in a competition to land them, too, as are a lot of very good schools just slightly further down in the rankings. But I agree with those who say the Ivies, MIT, etc. will be high reaches for the OP’s kid. Aim there, to be sure, but don’t count on getting in, and be realistic in picking some matches and safeties that are somewhat less selective but still a good fit.