More room at Yale -- in the future

DCforMe
Sun, 08 Jun 2008 19:15:15 +0000

Obligatorty posting of tokenadult’s FAQ on demographics:



tokenadult:

I think you’ve seen my FAQ on college application demographics before. Perhaps it is new to some of the other participants here.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Population trends in the United States are not the only issue influencing the competitiveness of college admission here. The children already born show us what the expected number of high school students are in various years, but the number of high school students in the United States, which is expected to begin declining in a few years, isn’t the whole story.

First of all, if more students who begin high school go on to college, there will be more applicants to college even with a declining number of high school students. And that is the trend in the United States and worldwide.

Second, colleges in the United States accept applications from all over the world, so it is quite possible that demographic trends in the United States will not be the main influence on how many students apply to college. The cohorts of high-school-age students are still increasing in size in some countries (NOT most of Europe).

Third, even if the number of applicants to colleges overall stays the same, or even declines, the number of applicants to the most competitive colleges may still increase. The trend around the world is a “flight to quality” of students trying to get into the best college they can in increasing numbers, and increasing their consensus about which colleges to put at the top of their application lists. I do not expect college admission to be any easier for my youngest child than for my oldest child, even though she is part of a smaller birth cohort in the United States.

And now I would add to this that at the very most selective colleges that have just announced new financial aid plans, next year’s (and the following year’s) crush of applicants will be larger than ever. When colleges that are already acknowledged to be great colleges start reducing their net cost down to what the majority of families in the United States can afford, those colleges will receive more applications from all parts of the United States, and very likely from all over the world.

The Austin American-Statesman newspaper in Texas published news about these trends in an article about a particular applicant in April 2008.

[Perfect college entrance exam scores don’t help student who dreamt of the Ivy Leagues](http://www.statesman.com/news/content/news/stories/local/04/19/0419perfect.html)

The Economist magazine published a brief article about these trends in April 2008.

[University admissions | Accepted | Economist.com](Accepted)