Most LGBT Friendly UC?

bclintonk
Wed, 05 Jun 2013 18:26:18 +0000

Sam Lee is generally right about education being a major demographic divide on the issue of same-sex marriage, but it’s not the only one, and maybe no longer the most important one. Public opinion surveys say that while a narrow majority of Californians opposed same-sex marriage in 2008, by 2010 public opinion had swung slightly in favor, and by early 2013 a clear majority of Californians favor it (53% favor, 41% oppose).

Among those whose education level is high school or less, only 46% support same-sex marriage. Among those who have some college, 57% support it. Among those with a 4-year degree or higher, 59% support it. But that gap has narrowed since 2008, when only 33% of those with HS or less supported it. That’s a huge 13% swing toward support for same-sex marriage—the biggest swing of any demographic group.

Opposition remains strongest among evangelical Protestants, of whom only 25% support same-sex marriage. But even they’re coming around; that’s up from 15% in 2008. Only 45% of Catholics support it (up 3 points since 2008), but 56% of mainline Protestants do (up 12 points since 2008). Among those claiming no religious affiliation, an overwhelming 84% support same-sex marriage (up 7 from 2008). So I’d say the religious divide is more important than the educational divide, at least at this juncture.

Other demographics showing less than majority support for same-sex marriage: Republicans (30% support, up 7 points since 2008), persons aged 55+ (46% support, up 12 points), and Latinos (46% support, up 12 points since 2008).

Strongest support: Persons with no religious affiliation (84%), Democrats (67%, up 11 points), persons aged 18-34 (62%, up 9 points), college graduates (59%, up 6 points), and political independents (59%, up 6 points).

These are just enormous attitude shifts across every demographic segment in just 5 years.