Over Supply of CS Grads?

Data10
Tue, 21 May 2024 18:28:43 +0000

While there is a lag between employment and decline in major, the article doesn’t make it sound like this is s new problem that suddenly occurred for the first time this year. The article instead makes it sounds like CS over supply is a problem that has been ongoing for many years and continues to get worse with each year, yet CS major enrollment continues to increase rapidly each year across the US as a whole.

Arkansas was an arbitrary example. A similar type of pattern occurs at other colleges I checked. Different colleges often show very different outcomes, but when there is a large sample size, I see little decline in outcomes. Another example that is closer to higher cost of living areas is Stevens, whose stats are below. While seeking employment increased from 2% to 5%, it doesn’t appear to be as dire a decline as one might expect from reading the article. In both years, CS was the highest median salary major.

2017 – 71% Employed, 27% Grad School, 2% Seeking Employment, Salary = $101k (2024 $)
Current – – 76% Employed, 19% Grad School, 5% Seeking Employment, Salary = $105k (2024 $)

Looking at the combined stats for ~13,000 new CS graduates across a large number of colleges through the US in the NACE dashboard, the outcomes for most recent available year (2022) were as follows. It looks like CS has one of the best typical employment outcomes among all majors in the US. I realize things have changed in some respects since 2022, but there does not appear to be an oversupply type trend in the available years. The trend is instead that inflation adjusted salaries for new CS grads are getting higher, and % seeking employment remains steady. Perhaps the increased % continuing education from 9% to 16% over the 8 year period is indicative of a future problem developing. Perhaps not.

2014: 74% employed, 9% continuing education, 9% seeking employment, salary = $90k (2024 $)
2018: 75% employed, 11% continuing education, 11% seeking employment, salary = $96k (2024 $)
2022: 72% employed, 16% continuing education, 10% seeking employment, salary = $106k (2024 $)

2022 All Majors – 64% employed, 19% continuing education, 11% seeking employment, salary = $69k (2024 $)