Political Polling Question (not political)

emilybee
Tue, 02 Feb 2016 18:44:35 +0000

“In 2012, there were at least three sites that aggregated state polls (the ones that matter for determining who gets electoral college votes). All of them correctly predicted the election result and at least 47 or 48 states. Editorial commentary on those sites indicated that two were D-leaning and one was R-leaning.”

Polling entities don’t lean D or R. A poll can appear to lean one way or another but that is because of the nature of where the poll is being conducted. A poll needs to take into account the number of registered D’s R’s and I’s in a state being polled. Where D’s outnumber R’s a pollster will want more D’s in the poll and vice versa. That is why so many people in 2012 thought the polls were skewed - they believed it was because not as many R’s were being polled. It went over their heads that there are more registered D’s. There were also a lot of people who didnt understand the difference in voting patterns between an off year election and a presidential year and believed D’s were being over sampled in 2014. So they “unskewed” the polls and believed the R candidate was going to win. Even the pundits were doing this which boggled my mind.

That bring said, the polls account for bias and other factors which is why they all have a + and - margin of error.

People love to believe polls are flawed because of a whole assortment of things - especially when the say “I’ve never been polled,” but very small numbers are all that is ever needed.