I read sdl0625’s post very differently than msdynamite did. I think sdl is talking about “those who are not vaccinated” because they choose not to vaccinate. Pretty much all experts are saying the vaccine will be widely available in the US to everybody who wants it before school begins next fall (sounds more likely by late spring/early summer at latest). So workers who are not vaccinated will be by choice. Msdynamite seems to be talking about providing access to vaccines, which doesn’t sound like it’s going to be a problem by school in fall 2021. I don’t think sdl is talking about sacrificing anybody for the sake of convenience. We will learn more in coming months if there end up being many people who are not eligible to get the vaccine (ie possibly chemotherapy patients, etc), but I haven’t heard evidence yet of any really sizable groups who will be ineligible, but am curious who they might be if anyone else has read about that.
I wish we could do a poll and see how many of us think things will be basically back to normal on colleges next fall (in-person classes; office hours and lab work in person; dining hall dining without unusual capacity constraints; normal numbers of students in dorm rooms; social events allowed; extracurriculars in person; sports with spectators; etc) and who thinks not. And then revisit it next August/September if this thread is still going. I firmly believe things will be basically normal because I believe everyone will have been offered a 95%+ vaccine by then and therapeutics will help the few cases (perhaps small hangovers such as no open salad bars, masks in very limited circumstances or upon request, maybe slight capacity restrictions to avoid true over-crowding situations, and maybe the opportunity to watch more recorded lectures if you don’t feel well, etc). Can’t wait to see it unfold! In the meantime, I love hearing the range of predictions.
I don’t envision there being much of a difference between city and country schools next fall. Many city schools did great this fall. Harvard had only 25 undergraduate cases since June 1st and I heard that 6-8 of last week’s cases were considered false positives—there was apparently some sort of contamination with their batch at the lab, which is why Broad shut down the lab for a bit and has a backlog now; it will be interesting to see if it gets reported or not, but anyway, that means really about 18 or so true positive cases since June 1st, 15 of which were after students arrived for fall semester. They had just under 2000 undergrads on campus, plus they include 500 off-campus upperclass students in their testing & numbers, so ~2500 undergrad students. Wesleyan, which I think is in a quieter location with ~3000 undergrads (but likely fewer on campus this year) had 33 positives this fall. I’d consider those very similar results. Williams has had 7 this fall, with fewer students. Bowdoin had 5 student cases this fall also with far fewer students. These all seem directionally similar to me. I believe frequent testing was the key to controlling the virus, not really location type. Tufts, Northeastern, BU all with very large student populations and 100% on campus in the city all did quite well (they all had regular mandatory testing). I think students going to basically any US campus in fall 2021 can expect pretty great in-person experiences. ???