Thoughts about Statistics, Misconceptions, and Stupidity in Admissions

Omega_Sanction
Tue, 30 Mar 2010 05:05:24 +0000

I agree the students make the college. But the students also help make each other. An environment of intellectuals is more likely to mold an intellectual than one that’s less oriented that way.



Okay, so I am male: 49% were male.
I went to a public school: 66% went to a public school
I have a 1560 (out of 1600) SAT: 37% had 1500-1600
I am white: 42% were white

What do we do with these numbers? Well, we are trying to find the probability that they all occur concurrently. 0.49 x 0.66 x 0.37 x 0.42 = 0.05025636 = 5%. Wow, that’s pretty bad compared to the average admission rate of 28%. I shouldn’t even bother apply, right? Right?!??!



Your sarcastic argument would work if it made sense from a statistical point of view. There’s a reason statistical tests test values equal to or more extreme than a certain cut-off… The probability of picking a random real number between 0 and 1 and having it be 0.6 is zero. But the probability of picking it as 0.6 or greater is 40%.

Also, your entire statistical demonstration seems pointless. Not many people have ever assigned real concretely calculated percentages (however flawed), not even in all those worthless “chance me” topics. Seeing where you lie in certain measurable areas like SAT is always important though, even though it should not be the final word on whether you get in or not or whether you should even apply in the first place.

Also, if you did want to do real calculations with them, you could adjust them by assuming estimated values for the covariances.