Why do people guess? Statistically there's no benefit?

pckeller
Mon, 29 Sep 2014 17:36:45 +0000

It is like going for it on fourth down!

4th Down: When to Go for It and Why - The New York Times;

Like football coaches who fear losing the ball, SAT takers generally worry too much about the guessing penalty. You should never be guessing wildly – if you are, then you have probably already answered too many questions for your current ability level. But if you are working slowly and carefully, you should certainly answer any question that you have invested time in.

I have given this advice many times and many at CC disagree – but no one has ever shown me why it’s wrong. For it to be a bad play, it would have to be the case that the time and thought invested had somehow reduced your chances of getting the problem right to worse than a random guess. For a student who is answering questions in the range that is appropriate for their score goal (based on past track record) I don’t believe that is possible.