<p>^ I’ve tried adjusting PhD production rates by entering SAT scores.
I started with the NSF’s list of top 50 U.S. baccalaureate-origin institutions of 2002–11 S&E doctorate recipients, by institutional-yield ratio (<a href=“nsf.gov - NCSES Baccalaureate Origins of U.S.-trained S&E Doctorate Recipients - US National Science Foundation (NSF)”>http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/infbrief/nsf13323/</a>, table 4). I then divided the NSF “institutional yield ratio” by the percentage of incoming freshmen with SAT-M scores in the 700-800 range (per CDS section C9). For example, for Reed College, the NSF institutional yield ratio is 14.2; the percentage of incoming freshmen with SAT-M scores in that range is 35%. So my adjusted score for Reed College is 14.2/.35=41. I re-ranked the NSF top 50 by this number. Results (w/highest-scoring schools on top):</p>
<p>Allegheny College
NM Institute of Mining and Technology
Earlham C.
Hendrix C.
Reed C.
Caltech
Kalamazoo C.
Harvey Mudd C.
Whitman C.
Grinnell C.
Oberlin C.
Bryn Mawr C.
Occidental C.
Swarthmore C.
Carleton C.
Lawrence U.
Macalester C.
Haverford C.
Franklin and Marshall C.
Mount Holyoke C.
MIT
Rice U.
Williams C.
Case Western Reserve U.
C. of William and Mary
Brandeis U.
CO School of Mines
Vassar C.
Pomona C.
Princeton U.
Wellesley C.
Brown U.
Cornell U.
Amherst C.
Wesleyan U.
Johns Hopkins U.
Carnegie Mellon U.
Stanford U.
U. CA, Berkeley
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Yale U.
Bowdoin C.
Dartmouth C.</p>
<p>I did not have complete information for UChicago, Harvard, Hillsdale, Duke, Rochester, Cooper Union, or Columbia, so they are not on this list. I think the most important thing is not the ranking of any individual school but the overall pattern. What kinds of colleges seem to do the best job of generating S&E doctorates, after adjusting for the number of high-scoring students they admit?
This list appears to be dominated by “Colleges That Change Lives”, other LACs, and technical institutes.</p>
<p>Self-selection must be a big factor here. I would not conclude that Dartmouth has weaker science programs than Allegheny. Allegheny may do a better job of motivating its best students to pursue doctorates. On the other hand, Dartmouth students presumably have more lucrative career opportunities that don’t require doctorates.</p>