Is a Math in 12th grade really Neccesary?

[al2simon]

Here are some statistics from the AP Calculus Exams (2014 test dates, US Students) that might be useful to gauge what most students are doing nowadays. They show the breakdown of how many students receive each score (1,2,3,4,5) by grade level -

** BC CALCULUS EXAM **
ALL STUDENTS —> 13,522 = 1 | 5,338 = 2 | 16,809 = 3 | 17,143 = 4 | 49,323 = 5 | --TOTAL TAKING = 102,135
12th Graders —> 10,703 = 1 | 4,134 = 2 | 12,799 = 3 | 12,602 = 4 | 30,890 = 5 | – TOTAL = 71,128
11th Graders —> 2,436 = 1 | 1,052 = 2 | 3,507 = 3 | 3,963 = 4 | 15,167 = 5 | – TOTAL = 26,125
<= 10th Grade —> 383= 1 | 152 = 2 | 503 = 3 | 578 = 4 | 3,266 = 5 | – TOTAL = 4,882

** AB CALCULUS EXAM **
ALL STUDENTS —> 87,203 = 1 | 30,122 = 2 | 50,022 = 3 | 46,642 = 4 | 67,664 = 5 | - TOTAL TAKING = 281,653
12th Graders —> 70,451 = 1 | 22,848 = 2 | 36,736 = 3 | 32,289 = 4 | 39,320 = 5 | – TOTAL = 201,644
11th Graders —> 14,424 = 1 | 6,384 = 2 | 11,697 = 3 | 12,668 = 4 | 23,791 = 5 | – TOTAL = 68,964
<= 10th Grade —> 2,328= 1 | 890 = 2 | 1,589 = 3 | 1,685 = 4 | 4,553 = 5 | – TOTAL = 11,045

1. About 50,000 students enter college with a 5 on the BC exam; about 83,000 enter with a 3 or better. For comparison, I think the total entering classes of the USNWR Top 20 national universities is about 32,000 students across all majors, not just STEM.
2. Between 190,000 - 250,000 students each year have a 3 or better on either the AB or BC exam (we can’t tell exactly how many because some students take the AB exam one year and the BC exam the next year.)
3. Almost 40% of students scoring a 5 on the BC exam are in 11th grade or younger - over 18,000 last year. Of these, 3,266 get a 5 as a sophomore or younger.

To put these numbers in perspective, in the US about 1,600,000 bachelor’s degrees are awarded each year, of which about 260,000 are in a STEM field. So I think it’s fair to say that most STEM students will have gotten a 3 or better on an AP Calculus exam before entering college. And that’s across all bachelor degree granting institutions; for selective colleges the proportion will skew much higher.

So I’d say if a student is aiming to be a STEM major at a selective college and their school offers AP Calculus, they should definitely take it. Of course, there are exceptions - there are always exceptions (pace Epimenides!) - but as they say,

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.