Unfortunately, I couldn’t find data on how many students take AB followed by BC the next year. However, I found some relevant data that might be interesting -
http://launchings.blogspot.com/2013/08/maa-calculus-study-effects-of-calculus.html
http://www.maa.org/external_archive/columns/launchings/launchings_06_09.html
This just confirms the opinions that have already been expressed in the thread. It also seems pretty clear that students who do well enough on the AP exams can safely skip Calculus I or II, though personally I think this has as much to do with the caliber of the students who self-select into AP Calculus.
A few personal opinions –
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Although I couldn’t find good data, I think the system in most high schools is to offer a choice of either AB or BC Calculus after pre-calculus – i.e. only a minority of schools mandate that students take a year of AB followed by a year of BC. Good math students who haven’t had any calculus before can definitely cover BC Calculus in a year. The class does need to move briskly to cover all the topics, so students need to be quick learners. Less able students should take AB Calculus if this pace is too quick - it’s the pace of BC that’s the issue, not the difficulty of the material.
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For those high schools that mandate a year of AB followed by a year of BC - there really isn’t that much extra material in BC Calculus vs AB Calculus. Even allowing time to review old material, I think it can be comfortably covered in 1 semester – there isn’t a need to take an entire extra year. I personally wouldn’t structure the curriculum this way, but of course all this depends on the size of the high school, its resources, and the population it serves.
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In our high school, a lot of students who take AB as juniors will take AP Statistics or AP Computer Science A as seniors (a few take BC Calculus). Both Statistics and Computer Science are year long classes, but there’s probably only a semester+ of material in each class. However, it’s still a good way for seniors to learn some neat stuff without working too hard while they’re enjoying their senior year.
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Overall, I think it’s wonderful that over the last 30 years schools have moved Algebra I down to middle school so that bright math students can take BC Calculus as juniors or seniors. My one misgiving is that rigorous, proof-based geometry seems to have almost entirely disappeared. I might be old fashioned, but classically the reason that mathematics was studied was to develop habits of rigorous thought that are important for students in all fields of study, from writers and philosophers to computer programmers and mathematicians. I’ve seen many good math students hit a brick wall in college once they leave the calculus sequence when they encounter rigorous mathematics while also dealing with new structures and levels of abstraction. Maybe more could make the transition if they already understood formal logic and how to write a proof. Personally, I’d think about using a 30% of the pre-Calculus curriculum (which doesn’t seem that crowded) to try to fix this.
Lastly, to my horror US News is publishing a “STEM Achievement Index” that they use to rank high schools: http://www.usnews.com/education/best-high-schools/articles/2014/04/21/2014-best-high-schools-for-stem-rankings-methodology
Someone should buy US News and shut it down. I think colleges, students, and parents would all be better off.