If the juniors took the two tests and made the same number of errors in each section in 2014 and 2015 tests, above will be their scores.
We can see that the kids scoring above 225+ (2015) will be the same kids who score high, 227+ in 2014.
Scores fluctuate because writing errors are very costly and math errors are cheap. Perfect EBRW score kids get a boost even with math errors as many as 7-8.
In the middle, between 221 - 222 (2015) there is a crossover from the trend in which 2014 scores are higher than 2015 scores with the same # of errors.
Population of kids scoring around 221 (2015) would have scored between 215 - 221 in 2014 and not made nmsf in tippy toppy states. Their number-of-error-based “concordance” 2014 scores are lower than 2015 scores.