National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

For IL, I got the following from my daughters school (My daughter has 218 (1470) on 228 scale). Her school counselor gave me the averages, in her school they had 12 children scoring 218 exactly and 10 children scoring 219 to 228 and 33 children scoring 215 or higher. All these are Juniors numbers from my daughter’s school.

Based on the above, I feel Illinois might go with 219 cut-off this year but there is still a hope as following is the actual data of my daughter’s school of past NMSF numbers from 2011 graduating class to 2016 graduating class:

Graduating Class of 2011 - 22 NMSF
Graduating Class of 2012 - 12 NMSF
Graduating Class of 2013 - 23 NMSF
Graduating Class of 2014 - 13 NMSF
Graduating Class of 2015 - 23 NMSF
Graduating Class of 2016 - 17 NMSF

So, if my daughter who has 218 to be a NMSF then her School will have 22 NMSF’s for 2017 graduating class. (Statistics on her side from the above Table) as her school in alternate years have crossed 20’s as they had 17 in 2016. Will 2017 have 22 from her School then she would be in based on the above actual data till 2016?

But what concerns me is 12 children from her School scoring 218 exactly, so state wide how many children are in the same boat? This concern puts a negative opinion on my part that IL might be 219 cutoff this year on 228 scale! Keeping my fingers crossed!

On the brighter side for my daughter, her School had never had 12 or less NMSF since 2011. If IL cut off is 219 this year then her School will have only 10 NMSF!