Shortcut to assessing "competitiveness" of various competitive full tuition or better scholarships?

I shared some of the suggestions given with DS today, and he came up with following, sort of in tiers based on average ACT and selectivity. His mind isn’t very open at this point to any colder climates. We eliminated anything more than 9 hour drive away.

  1. Two in-state publics - Kentucky, Louisville (25 avg ACT)
  2. Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama (27 avg ACT)
  3. Clemson, Georgia, Centre, Sewanee, Furman, Rhodes (28 avg ACT)
  4. Emory, UVA, Wake Forest, UNC, Davidson, Wash & Lee, Richmond (30+ avg ACT)
  5. Duke, Vanderbilt, WUSTL (33 avg ACT)

He has the rest of the calendar year to do research on each and hopefully winnow the list, and figure out where he wants to visit next year. We had good discussion on finances and realistic chances for merit. We are remarkably on the same page, which made me feel good. He knows that the chance of merit at the most selective of these will be like a lottery ticket, and therefore he needs to plan accordingly to make sure he has some better options, especially a safety. The safety isn’t too hard because he would be happy to attend UK, and it will be in budget no matter what happens.