As some of you know, I was always trying to find evidence that would support low cutoffs. Just to make my biases clear and explicit… 
Eventually, I was reluctantly convinced by testmaster’s (and others) data. It seemed like PSAT scores would probably be about equivalent to the same score from previous years. But I still didn’t believe that the commended score would go up so much. That just seemed crazy to me. In fact I think it seemed crazy to testmaster too, which is why they gave the range of 200 (what probably seemed “reasonable” to them) to 210 (what their data seemed to suggest). Anyway, I’m definitely surprised it has gone up by so much.
People seem to be interested in new predictions. Not that my predictions are really worth anything, but here is my updated version. As we all know, the concordance tables correspond to ranges of SI scores. In my previous prediction, I used the most optimistic end of the range. It turns out that if I use the most pessimistic end of the range, I get the new 209 concording to the old 202 (the old commended cutoff).
So, here is the full table, in case it is interesting to anyone:
(New) SI 200 concords to between 190 (34R/31W/35.0M) and 200 (31R/38W/31.0M), avg 195.1
(New) SI 202 concords to between 193 (34R/31W/36.0M) and 203 (38R/33W/30.0M), avg 197.6
(New) SI 204 concords to between 196 (33R/34W/35.0M) and 205 (38R/33W/31.0M), avg 200.0
(New) SI 206 concords to between 198 (34R/34W/35.0M) and 208 (38R/35W/30.0M), avg 202.5
(New) SI 208 concords to between 201 (33R/36W/35.0M) and 210 (36R/38W/30.0M), avg 205.2
(New) SI 210 concords to between 203 (34R/36W/35.0M) and 214 (37R/38W/30.0M), avg 207.8
(New) SI 212 concords to between 206 (34R/36W/36.0M) and 218 (38R/38W/30.0M), avg 210.4
(New) SI 214 concords to between 209 (34R/36W/37.0M) and 220 (38R/38W/31.0M), avg 213.0
(New) SI 216 concords to between 212 (35R/36W/37.0M) and 222 (38R/38W/32.0M), avg 215.6
(New) SI 218 concords to between 216 (35R/36W/38.0M) and 224 (38R/38W/33.0M), avg 218.4
(New) SI 220 concords to between 220 (35R/37W/38.0M) and 225 (38R/38W/34.0M), avg 221.3
(New) SI 222 concords to between 224 (35R/38W/38.0M) and 226 (38R/35W/38.0M), avg 224.6
(New) SI 224 concords to between 228 (36R/38W/38.0M) and 229 (38R/38W/36.0M), avg 228.2
(New) SI 226 concords to between 232 (37R/38W/38.0M) and 232 (37R/38W/38.0M), avg 232.0
(New) SI 228 concords to between 236 (38R/38W/38.0M) and 236 (38R/38W/38.0M), avg 236.0
New cutoffs:
214 (was 209) for Alabama
212 (was 206) for Alaska
218 (was 215) for Arizona
222 (was 223) for California
218 (was 215) for Colorado
223 (was 225) for DC
218 (was 216) for Delaware
217 (was 214) for Florida
219 (was 218) for Georgia
217 (was 214) for Hawaii
214 (was 208) for Idaho
218 (was 215) for Illinois
217 (was 213) for Indiana
214 (was 208) for Iowa
217 (was 213) for Kansas
215 (was 210) for Kentucky
216 (was 211) for Louisiana
216 (was 211) for Maine
221 (was 222) for Maryland
222 (was 223) for Massachusetts
215 (was 210) for Michigan
217 (was 214) for Minnesota
214 (was 209) for Mississippi
214 (was 209) for Missouri
211 (was 204) for Montana
214 (was 209) for Nebraska
216 (was 211) for Nevada
217 (was 213) for New Hampshire
223 (was 225) for New Jersey
214 (was 208) for New Mexico
220 (was 219) for New York
218 (was 215) for North Carolina
209 (was 202) for North Dakota
218 (was 215) for Ohio
214 (was 208) for Oklahoma
218 (was 215) for Oregon
219 (was 217) for Pennsylvania
216 (was 212) for Rhode Island
216 (was 211) for South Carolina
209 (was 202) for South Dakota
216 (was 212) for Tennessee
220 (was 220) for Texas
212 (was 206) for Utah
217 (was 214) for Vermont
221 (was 222) for Virginia
220 (was 219) for Washington
209 (was 202) for West Virginia
214 (was 208) for Wisconsin
209 (was 202) for Wyoming