@pickpocket, I saved the PDF’s, but I can’t find online versions of the 2015 Forbes components any more. If there is a way to send over PDF’s over, I could do that.
In any case, the sum is so low for the last group (“Other good schools”) that you probably could come up with another group of “Other good schools” that are, in aggregate, about or almost as good (and as you would expect in any normal distribution, there are more in each tier the farther away from the top you are).
In terms of the surprises, note that the USNews rankings are heavily input-based and can be gamed. Schools that heavily value high test scores like Vandy and WashU may be higher up in the rankings than their outputs would indicate. Also, until recently, WashU, Vandy, and Emory were only regionally acclaimed, so they would draw the best talent from only their immediate area (and none were in big metros; Atlanta now is one, but that’s because it has been growing rapidly; it certainly wasn’t in the past). Also, schools where a lot of their top students go to med school (WashU and JHU & arguably Emory) may be dinged by my methodology as those schools would be less represented at the top in other areas (like the arts, politics, business, law, etc.).
CMU is a lot like NYU, USC, UIUC (and IU) in being unbalanced: very strong in some fields/schools and not so much in others. They were a bit unlucky to finish just a little on the wrong side of the line in a few of the criteria. Likewise, you could argue that CU was a bit lucky to finish in the second lot of 25 in “American Leaders”. Though note that USNews tends to underrate giant publics with its methodology with criteria such as median test scores & acceptance rate (tough for a giant public to bring very high and very low, respectively, even if a large absolute number of their alums become successful by various criteria) as well as per capita endowment. Bennington does do well in the arts.
In any case, they’re both in that lowest group and could be easily in or out.
Reed and NCF, however, are for real. They both put a high percentage of grads in to PhD programs and elite professional schools and also win prestigious awards at an good rate. Reed, for the longest time, disdained playing the US News rankings game (and got punished for it). In that sense, they were like UChicago a decade ago. If you don’t market like crazy to drum up a ton of applicants and thus your applicant & accepted pool is weaker and thus fewer of them graduate, you will be dinged by USNews even if the percentage of your grads with notable achievements is similar to other near-Ivies or Ivies.
I personally don’t think much of the USNews rankings. If you want a ranking that is less-easily gamed and reflects the real-world better, look at my tiers or the Forbes rankings (which uses a lot of the same inputs as mine).