Two points about New Jersey. First, New Jersey’s public universities may be full but they don’t attract many of the state’s top students. New Jersey and Michigan produce similar numbers of high school graduates (Michigan has a larger overall population but it’s an aging population, so the school-aged population is slowly declining). And Rutgers and the University of Michigan are similar-sized flagships with similar-sized entering freshman classes. But Rutgers’ admit rate is right around 60%, while Michigan’s is now 27%. And the entering class stats aren’t even close. Middle 50% SAT scores at Rutgers are 1130-1340, while at Michigan they’re 1290-1500. Nearly 4 times as many Michigan freshmen have SAT CR scores in the 700-800 range compared to Rutgers, and more than twice as many Michigan freshmen have SAT M scores in that range. That all tells me the top students in New Jersey are avoiding Rutgers in droves.
Second, New Jersey’s student export numbers may be skewed somewhat by the state;s unusual geography, with most of its population in suburbs of major cities in other states Lot of south Jersey (suburban Philadelphia) kids attend schools in Philadelphia, and lots of north Jersey (suburban New York) kids attend schools in New York City. These kids are both “staying local” and yet going out-of-state at the same time. That’s not to say that other members of the New Jersey diaspora won’t go far and wide to get away from Rutgers, but the numbers of local-but-out-of-state kids are also quite substantial… Some examples of NJ freshmen at Philadelphia schools from the 2010 entering class: Drexel 611, Temple 404, St. Joseph’s 389, Villanova 367 (more than from PA), Penn 257, LaSalle 230. And New York City schools: NYU 607, Fordham 296, Pace (NYC campus) 238, St. John’s 237, Columbia 166. Throw in New York and Pennsylvania schools a bit farther afield and the numbers add up really quickly: Penn State 792, Syracuse 394, Cornell 319, Scranton 316, Lehigh 271 (more than from PA), East Stroudsburg 269, West Chester 269, Bloomsburg 239,Kutztown 225, Muhlenberg 213 (more than PA), Ithaca 197, York 192, Marist 191, RIT 191, Pitt 188, Susquehanna 162, Bucknell 143, CMU 127, Gettysburg 125.