I don’t think there is a definitive answer to your question. It depends on the college. If you are talking about tippy tops, then the value of garden-variety ECs is probably overrated by students and parents who are new to the process. Quality is definitely more important than quantity, and ECs are not going to make up for stats that are on the low side, with some exceptions (athletes, legacy, URM, etc…). As the colleges get less selective, ECs are still important, but perhaps the “quality” of the ECs is a little less so.
As I freely admitted in my “average excellent” thread, my own daughter had pretty standard ECs. I do believe her ECs didn’t help her at two tippy top colleges she was denied from. She was WLed at three very selective LACs. Was it because of her ECs? I doubt it was just that, because her grades, while very good, were actually a tad on the low side for the top schools she applied to. However, she was admitted off the WL to two of those LACs. Maybe a combination? Who knows. She ended up being accepted to three very selective LACs in all, and I suspect it was in large part because she had good grades and excellent test scores. But I think she must have also had very good LORs, and she wrote a good essay and supplements. So I guess if you look at the whole package, then yes, perhaps ECs are overrated. But it’s like a jigsaw puzzle and without the ECs, it’s an incomplete jigsaw. For holistic admissions, you need to send a puzzle with all the pieces.
Of course some colleges don’t care about ECs at all. Overall, I think other things are more important than ECs, but for students applying to colleges that practice holistic admissions, they should be striving to participate in things that are almost an extension of who they are. Whether that is a job, a long-term volunteer position, or a sport, it should be something a student is really committed to because it’s necessary to their well-being. And for the student that HAS to have an EC that is a job or looking after siblings, family members, or similar, that student should ask their guidance counselor to note the circumstances in the letter of rec. Not all strong students have the luxury of doing things they enjoy outside of school.
I also agree about SCEA and ED. At the most selective colleges, if you don’t already have what they want, it won’t be an advantage. However, as a college gets less selective, ED can definitely be a boost.
@ArdenNJ ETA: Perhaps another good question would be “Do students underestimate how important it can be to have interesting ECs that help a college understand who you are?” When 10 kids with great stats send in apps that have a sport, student government, and Model UN, and 1 kid with great stats sends in an app that highlights his beekeeping skills and how he bottles and sells his honey, which app just might get more attention? Not that everyone needs to start keeping bees of course, and plenty of students who do sport, student gov and Model UN are accepted to Harvard and the like every year. But I would put my money on the beekeeper.