Coronavirus May 2020 - Observations, information, discussion

Exactly. The CDC has now announced their estimate of a death rate (IFR) of 0.26% across all age and risk cohorts. This is exactly the same IFR estimated in the comprehensive Gangelt study in Germany. See 3:55 of this interview with the virologist who conducted the study - “true” IFR of 0.24-0.26% - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrL9QKGQrWk. The entire interview is WELL worth watching.

Two things to observe about such a low IFR as regards individual risk. First, these are the chances of death if you are infected and even in an uncontrolled virus sweep, no more than 50% would be infected before saturation is reached (it looks like NYC reached saturation at approximately 25% penetration). Thus, the overall IFR must be discounted by at least a factor of two for any individual contemplating the risks, leaving a risk of fatal outcome for an individual estimated across all age and risk cohorts under 0.15%, perhaps well under if saturation is achieved at lower penetration.

Second, the distribution of fatal outcomes is skewed towards the very elderly, with median age of COVID deaths reported as anywhere from the high 70s to the early 80s. Thus, for workers under age 70 or so, the true risks are much less than 0.15%, likely well under 0.05%, 1 out of 2000.

These are not the sort of risks for which I would change my behavior very much. This very low risk was apparent to me at least two months ago (here is my post on risks from 10 weeks ago http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/22663387/#Comment_22663387). Judging from how many people seem to be easing up here in Palm Beach County on their protective measures (and I have been out and about every single day since the earliest stages of the crisis, so I have seen the trends in both directions), I believe it is becoming more apparent to many others.