You're notified via mail and email. You then have to submit a supplemental application and writing sample that is reviewed by the committee. You come out to Duke for a 4 day trip at the end of March and are introduced to the university and the AB community. During that weekend you have a short interview with Duke faculty on the scholarship committee. They let you know a week after that whether you get it or not.
Last year, I believe they notified around ~40-50 who interviewed and then accepted ~20. 15 accepted.
Likely letters often target specific underrepresented groups, not necessarily the ones qualified for a certain scholarship. It is a good sign, but I am sure that many of the scholarship finalists do not receive likely letters and many of the likely letter recipients are not scholarship finalist. About a week to go now...
Last year decisions came out on the 4th, the year before on the 5th.. And the year before that on the 6th.. They are consistently released the first Friday of March.. For us the 2nd.. So my best guess is they will come out either this Friday (2nd) or next Friday (9th)