Developing a list of appropriate schools to apply to is a critical step in having a successful application cycle. It’s as important as having strong LORs or good MCAT score.
My recommendations:
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all in-state publics
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privates where the applicant’s stats fall within the 25-75 percentiles AND the applicant fits the mission of the school
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OOS friendly publics where the applicant’s stats are above the in-state average AND the applicant can articulate a cogent reason for “Why this school?” OR the applicant can demonstrate a very strong “affiliation” for the state. (attending high school in the state, immediate family members live there, some states will considering attending an in-state college)
Determining “OOS friendly” is an exercise in risk-tolerance. The applicant has to decide what is OOS friendly. This may be different for different individuals. Is it an an OOS enrollment of 20%? 15%? 10%?