My apologies @balrog29
Thanks to @PAMom21 for pointing out the fact that they changed the Understanding Scores report to show the previous year starting from 2012 up till now. So when will we find out the 99th percentile?
@diderdrogba in September, so you won't know the cutoff until next school year. But I heard "rumors" that those who qualify for NMSF get notified before the cutoff gets released. (Correct me if I am wrong please).
@psywar Really? I thought most schools gave reports back in December before the winter break.
@AverageStudent97 - yeah, public Texas school. Won't give the code til after winter break, so that they can go over them. Makes zero sense not to provide the code if asked...
I'd be shocked if TX dropped more than a point or two (to 217-216) and not surprised to see it stay the same, doubtful it will increase by more than a point.
@AverageStudent97 lol ofc that's the range.... @3scoutsmom Why would you be shocked to see it go down? Based on previous years, I think it might be 216-217 given that after it goes down 1 point from the previous year, it usually goes up by a point or two (which I highly doubt will happen this year) or it'll go down by 2 points
Lemme know your thoughts
Also, does anyone have the 2013 PSAT Understanding scores file? I can't find it online, I'd greatly appreciate if someone can find it and post it here.
Reread my post, I didn't say I'd be shocked if it went down, I said it I'd be shocked if it went down by more than a point or two which would be 217-216 just as you said. Also you need to consider that some states go up when other states go down. I think states that have that have a recently reduced population like MI will see a greater decrease in scores and states like TX that have a recently increased population especially because the increase is in high tech areas (like Austin, Dallas, Houston) are less likely to see a decrease in scores. The whole reason for each state to have their own cut off is to balance where the NMF are coming from. It's all a numbers game...
@gkma98 Well how else are you really supposed to "estimate" the range then? You certainly don't know substantial amount of scores of people in Texas to actually determine that....
Here's a timeline of the events based on last year, as best I can remember them. My son is a NMSF for the class of 2015, and it's been an exciting ride so far.
12/14 (present) ~You know or will know your scores in the very near future (got ours from the school on 12/12). You can make guesses based on the scoring curve. I didn't do this last year, so I can't speak for that.
2/15 ~ State summary reports come out, along with the national means in subject areas only (no mean for the SI). Many folks last year, myself included, played a LOT with this data. Bigger states are easier to predict than smaller ones, but there is some insight in the number of kids scoring in those upper ranges. For PA, I could make a pretty nice prediction using the total number of kids scoring 70+ in each subject area. For what it's worth, several different calculations all predicted PA would drop by a point, which it did, but for the most part, this just passes the time. ( http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/16974100/#Comment_16974100 )
4/15 ~ Commendation cut comes out. THIS was significant. Last year when it dropped from 203 to 201, that was optimistic for state cuts. Note that this number is not released by NMSC, but schools and homeschoolers got a letter asking that their student info be verified at this time, and when someone would chime in that they got one for the next lower number, we could safely lower the cut. The dust settled in time, and we knew it was 201. ( http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/17163663/#Comment_17163663 )
8/15 ~ Letters [start[/i] going out for semi-finalist. They go both to schools and homeschoolers. Your best bet is to find a homeschooler with a similar cut, and buddy up for the long haul. (Love my homeschooling pals!) If you are sitting at 215, and your homeschool pal gets the letter with 214, you might know before your school tells you. Information was shared freely here on CC. I'll dig up a link in a minute, but I suggest you read through the score "rollout" for previous years to prepare, if you want in on that fun. ( http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/17558305/#Comment_17558305 )
9/15 ~ You will have official notification in hand, and until early October to complete the next phase. Shortly after this big rollout, commendation letters go out, but they are a bit anticlimactic, as most should know their status by that point.
Hi everybody, I'm new at this website. I'm studying online, but my school is based on PA. I scored 217 on the PSAT (72CR, 67 Math, 78 Writing). Do you think I'll be able to make the cut? Does anyone know what the PA cut-off score is?
Thanks.
Dominic, I am from PA. For the class of 2015, the cut was 216. For 2014, it was a record high of 217, which it had only hit once before. Most other years fell in that 213-217 band. You should be fine with 217, but it will still be a waiting game until next August to be certain. Best wishes!
Replies to: *OFFICIAL PSAT THREAD 2014 (US)*
Thanks to @PAMom21 for pointing out the fact that they changed the Understanding Scores report to show the previous year starting from 2012 up till now. So when will we find out the 99th percentile?
@psywar Really? I thought most schools gave reports back in December before the winter break.
@topaz1116 Isn't it 74 on CR because of the -.25 for each question penalty? He'd be at 44.25 with the -.75 penalty from 3 points.
@3scoutsmom Why would you be shocked to see it go down? Based on previous years, I think it might be 216-217 given that after it goes down 1 point from the previous year, it usually goes up by a point or two (which I highly doubt will happen this year) or it'll go down by 2 points
Lemme know your thoughts
12/14 (present) ~You know or will know your scores in the very near future (got ours from the school on 12/12). You can make guesses based on the scoring curve. I didn't do this last year, so I can't speak for that.
2/15 ~ State summary reports come out, along with the national means in subject areas only (no mean for the SI). Many folks last year, myself included, played a LOT with this data. Bigger states are easier to predict than smaller ones, but there is some insight in the number of kids scoring in those upper ranges. For PA, I could make a pretty nice prediction using the total number of kids scoring 70+ in each subject area. For what it's worth, several different calculations all predicted PA would drop by a point, which it did, but for the most part, this just passes the time. ( http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/16974100/#Comment_16974100 )
4/15 ~ Commendation cut comes out. THIS was significant. Last year when it dropped from 203 to 201, that was optimistic for state cuts. Note that this number is not released by NMSC, but schools and homeschoolers got a letter asking that their student info be verified at this time, and when someone would chime in that they got one for the next lower number, we could safely lower the cut. The dust settled in time, and we knew it was 201. ( http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/17163663/#Comment_17163663 )
8/15 ~ Letters [start[/i] going out for semi-finalist. They go both to schools and homeschoolers. Your best bet is to find a homeschooler with a similar cut, and buddy up for the long haul. (Love my homeschooling pals!) If you are sitting at 215, and your homeschool pal gets the letter with 214, you might know before your school tells you. Information was shared freely here on CC. I'll dig up a link in a minute, but I suggest you read through the score "rollout" for previous years to prepare, if you want in on that fun. ( http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/17558305/#Comment_17558305 )
9/15 ~ You will have official notification in hand, and until early October to complete the next phase. Shortly after this big rollout, commendation letters go out, but they are a bit anticlimactic, as most should know their status by that point.
Good luck to all!
Thanks.